Cheltenham 2016...

At last Cheltenham is here! Best time of the year for me at work - not on the trading front - but in terms of letting my hair down...a whole year of constricting my emotions trading on racing and football is released during this week!

Just straight betting, watching the races and having fun - if I can make some money too, then great.

I've never had an unprofitable Cheltenham although last year could have been better.

I'll start posting my bets tomorrow and then each day through the festival.

Good luck!

Never Cash Out...

Yes..'Cash Out' has just got better...for the bookies!

So the 'Cash Out' trend is now well and truly entrenched in the market place and the bookmakers must be loving it! Imagine, Mr Punter goes online to place a bet. He does it with a bookmaker and so by default is already going to get pretty poor value in most cases. Then he is offered the choice of whether or not to Cash Out his bet at a certain point in a game...he decides to do that. Not only has he been ripped off on the initial bet, he goes back in and gets terrible odds on the Cash Out bet too!

Don't do it! The fact that the bookies are so hot on promoting it should tell you something.

Of course there are situations where Cashing Out might seem like a good idea - but the problem will always be the price.


That should read...'Let us take control of your football bets'

That's not to say that I haven't used Cash Out on the Exchanges :) I have. I do a fair bit of trading in the Correct Score markets in football. Trying to come out of a trade with many sets of fluctuating prices within the same market isn't easy. So I know that cash out is probably the best option. Trying to square up manually isn't practical and by the time you have worked it all out the market has moved again - so yes, I am ashamed to say I do occasionally use Cash Out on the exchanges.

The other day I didn't like the way things were going in a match and so I got out for a small profit of £22.00. The market wasn't very liquid at that point and there were a few 'gaps' on some prices - but the Exchange Cash Out button was offering me £14.00 which is getting close to 40% less profit!

So make sure that you pick your moment to Cash Out on the exchanges and don't trust the figure in the Cash Out display.

Why..?

Nothing to smile about Manuel...and we don't want you at Chelsea

So Pellegrini saw fit to send his youngsters to Stamford Bridge to play in the most prestigious domestic cup tournament in the world. What a shame. He disrespected the competition and, if you want to get sensitive, disrespected Chelsea. In the end he got what he deserved and probably gained nothing in terms of experience for his young guns who will probably just feel demoralised.

Chelsea have the best set of youngsters out there and have basically won it all in the last few years and they wouldn't dream of putting them out as a whole team.

So Pellegrini had injury and team concerns ahead of his Champions League tie against Dynamo Kiev..so what. This isn't the CL semi-final or final we're talking about..he should have played his best team on Sunday and his best team in the CL a few days later. With the form they are currently in, City have no hope of a CL final appearance anyway.

Lets hope in years to come managers, especially foreign managers, understand the importance of domestic trophies like the FA Cup and don't start fielding second string sides in that competition. We already have a competition for that and it's called the League Cup...oh and guess what, Man City are in the final of that one.

Only the Hair Matters...

Well Arsene Wenger must have been hoping that the departure of Mourinho would lead to a rare victory over Chelsea but it wasn't to be.. Chelsea too savvy again. The blues just sat on their lead in typical fashion and said "c'mon then.." and although Arsenal did have a reasonable ten minute spell and the odd half chance, they really weren't up to it.

When watching sports, it's easy to get carried away with home crowd noise and commentary. The crowd over-compensates when their team is down and will applaud anything. Add that to the commentators job, which is to make the game seem more exciting and you soon get a distorted picture of a match. It happens in sports like football and in racing too. In the latter, you can often see that the race will only have one winner, yet the commentator makes out that something is coming off the pace to take the race or come close. If you are a sports / football or a race trader and you cannot filter out the hype, then turn off the volume!

Back to the Premier League, they say that 'if you win it, then it's deserved'. It may still hold true but whoever wins it this season will be a 'weak' champion. The big teams that won it in the past - Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and going back a bit Liverpool - were teams that dominated domestically and mostly went on to compete, with some successes, in Europe. You get the feeling that whoever wins this season will be a poor team.

I feel sorry for Wenger, he's is a good, intelligent manager. He has probably made some mistakes in terms of buying the right players and stuck too long with some of his footballing theories but the players have yet to reward the man for his hard work and that won't happen until they focus.

What is wrong with this picture?



That's right, for Arsenal players, it's all about personal grooming and how they look on social media. I can tell you, categorically, that all these photos were taken either in the 90th minute of matches or after four hour training sessions. How can your hair still be perfect? None of them have even headed the ball..

And it's catching. Flamini, who doesn't even have any hair, won't head the ball either. He should have gone with his head on Sunday at the end of the first half against Chelsea, instead of practicing his Kung Fu.


Flamini misses..and in the background yet another Arsenal player doing his hair..

Success is within Wenger's reach. He just needs to adopt a 'shave it off' policy. Then maybe his team will get somewhere.


The 'ox' applauding his team mates' latest barnets.

Arsenal to win the league? Surely not...

Good Odds...

This is a situation I often end up with. Anyone who has looked at my vids will know that I am generally against the favourite in a race (often other horses too if I feel the price is too short).

In the example below, I had a small lay bet in running against Heron's Heir. In the end, however, I hedged / backed it and got out. The horse won. If you pick your races carefully and there is still time in the race, you can expect some fluctuation in price that will allow you to do this, if you feel it is necessary. The difficulty is getting out quickly and getting your maths right in what amounts to a few seconds!

Although the trade ended up as a small loss, when you look at the final risk / reward in terms of loss and profit you can see that you have ended up with excellent odds.



Graph below shows price fluctuation near the finish.

When It Works Out...

I am not a regular Back to Lay trader, every man, his dog and his dog's mate is doing it, but there are races during the week, where I can't find any other angle into the race, so I do bet on the odd horse that I think will shorten in running.

The trick is to have a good feel for whether or not the horse will front run, if it's a good jumper or traveller, then pick the right types of race. A good jockey can help too.

Of course you are always vulnerable to your horse falling, running poorly, not front running as expected, being left in the stalls - all of which will kill your trade... and then some. Of course, other horses in the field can run into difficulty or fall too. This happened yesterday, where I was on Fletchers Flyer (fav.) and the second favourite, Value at Risk, fell early in the race.

The price on Fletchers Flyer immediately collapsed and went ridiculously short - below 1.17 from memory. I managed to get out / equalise at about 1.28. Betfair SP was 2.06 or thereabouts. Fletchers Flyer still managed to lose but there was of course already profit across the board.

The Golden Guus...

Well the 'fixer' is back and he's started to work his magic already. The last time he took over in 2009 his record was exemplary and many Chelsea fans wanted him to stay. I think he'll move on again after this season - mainly because he is probably thinking more about retirement than a career change and CFC will be looking to the future...again.

Top four? Maybe, but only if inconsistency continues to plague the 'top' teams. Europa League..? Let's hope not!