Thursday, 7 January 2016

When It Works Out...

I am not a regular Back to Lay trader, every man, his dog and his dog's mate is doing it, but there are races during the week, where I can't find any other angle into the race, so I do bet on the odd horse that I think will shorten in running.

The trick is to have a good feel for whether or not the horse will front run, if it's a good jumper or traveller, then pick the right types of race. A good jockey can help too.

Of course you are always vulnerable to your horse falling, running poorly, not front running as expected, being left in the stalls - all of which will kill your trade... and then some. Of course, other horses in the field can run into difficulty or fall too. This happened yesterday, where I was on Fletchers Flyer (fav.) and the second favourite, Value at Risk, fell early in the race.

The price on Fletchers Flyer immediately collapsed and went ridiculously short - below 1.17 from memory. I managed to get out / equalise at about 1.28. Betfair SP was 2.06 or thereabouts. Fletchers Flyer still managed to lose but there was of course already profit across the board.

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