Tuesday, 27 January 2015

The Great Ugly...

So the Hurricane (or 'Fly' if you prefer) did it again, pulling off a fifth consecutive BHP Insurances Irish Champion Hurdle from literally out of the mire on Sunday. In doing so he beat Istabraq's record in the race. Does this assure his place as the greatest hurdler in modern times?

He looked beaten two or three flights out, off the bridle and up against the cruising Jezki - but as Jezki hit the last - Hurricane Fly took his chance and pulled away to win.

You've got to love this horse but he looks bloody awful! The trace clipping doesn't help of course but in the parade ring he has 'loser' written all over him because he often looks scruffy and sweaty - a kind of cross between a raggedy stray dog and a horse!

Part dog, part horse?

Has this horse done a deal with the Devil?

Seriously though, respect.

Tuesday, 20 January 2015

Cold Weather Blues...

Well it's that time of year again - although to be fair it hasn't been too bad so far - one jumps meeting off every day but one usually survives along with the all-weather.

Hopefully it will just be a short 'snap' of freezing conditions before things get back to normal. We shouldn't complain really - racing markets aren't too badly affected by economic factors which touch almost every other business out there. They have their 'boom and bust' and exchange traders only have the weather and very occasionally other disasters to deal with....does anyone remember 2001?

Let's hope we never see that again...

Tuesday, 13 January 2015

FIFA Team of the Year...

So the FIFA Team of the Year 2014 is out. Of course big tournaments and matches come into play like the World Cup and the Champions League but I would like to see more day in day out league play count for something.

I mean the fact that Messi picked up the Golden Ball in the World Cup was a complete joke and he knew it too! Can we trust anything to do with FIFA?

Lionel Messi overjoyed at winning the Golden Ball

Neuer, for example, is a fine keeper and a current World Cup winner but he had a fantastic team in front of him and he is part of the dominant team in the Bundesliga - I mean there simply is no other threat. Bayern Munich being eleven points clear at this stage of the season says it all.

Di Maria had a couple of great games in the World Cup and also did a bit of work for Real Madrid too. In fact he was so good that they sold him to Man Utd. After a couple of good games in the Premiership he has been fairly mediocre...certainly against proper teams.

David Luiz deserves to be there for his hair alone and of course he is ex-Chelsea.

Arjen 'run in a straight line then cut in-field and shoot with my left foot' Robben - well I guess that works for all but the best defenses. But he's ex-Chelsea so we'll let it go.

Messi and Ronaldo can play a bit so they can stay in.

Iniesta - that's funny!

Lahm - Why?

Kroos - Ok.

Silva - Haven't watched him enough.

Ramos - Could have been him or one of fifty others.

So lets just keep it simple. In future, the team that wins the toughest league in the world is the team of the year. So for 2015 the team of the year will be:

Thank you.

Monday, 12 January 2015

Short Priced Lay...

This is just a quick 'after the fact' video of another in play trade (more of a bet actually). The horse concerned was Bairns at Bay and I was against it before the off and in running I never really thought it would get home.

I make a bit of an odd statement towards the end of the video! I think what I am trying to say is that hedging out is a good idea if you can see runners coming from off the pace and your horse is still looking ok - because often this can lead to a price fluctuation but with the horse you have laid still getting home.

If your horse is simply flagging at the front - you can dump the hedge bets because if caught - there is no chance of him getting back up.

Still, it's a fine line, and these shorter distance races are more like bets really as there is little time to think. It's really about getting on at a good price (for me anyway!)

You Tube:

Monday, 5 January 2015

The Death of AU...

So it looks as if Betfair have ditched 'AU' (Any Unquoted) in the Football Correct Score market. It's a shame because it had a bit of a cult following amongst Correct Score traders - of which I am one!

In its place Betfair now offer three distinct AU type markets:

Any Other Home Win.
Any Other Away Win.
Any Other Draw.

As a result, the number of 'scorelines' in the market is up from 17 to 19.

The forums have been alive with talk of 'great value' and 'poor value' and people now using Betdaq AU instead...of course in reality nothing has changed; Betfair markets are efficient and the book percentage needs to remain at around 100%.

All it means is that those laying AU now need to lay proportionately in all three of the new markets and those backing AU now need to back proportionately in all three of the new markets.

I wonder how long it will be before some scammer tries to cash in on the new betfair Correct Score layout!

The new format offers a bit more flexibility but for many, including me, it will just prove to be a pain in the neck as I was happy simply backing or laying AU as a single bet.