Monday, 25 January 2016

Only the Hair Matters...

Well Arsene Wenger must have been hoping that the departure of Mourinho would lead to a rare victory over Chelsea but it wasn't to be.. Chelsea too savvy again. The blues just sat on their lead in typical fashion and said "c'mon then.." and although Arsenal did have a reasonable ten minute spell and the odd half chance, they really weren't up to it.

When watching sports, it's easy to get carried away with home crowd noise and commentary. The crowd over-compensates when their team is down and will applaud anything. Add that to the commentators job, which is to make the game seem more exciting and you soon get a distorted picture of a match. It happens in sports like football and in racing too. In the latter, you can often see that the race will only have one winner, yet the commentator makes out that something is coming off the pace to take the race or come close. If you are a sports / football or a race trader and you cannot filter out the hype, then turn off the volume!

Back to the Premier League, they say that 'if you win it, then it's deserved'. It may still hold true but whoever wins it this season will be a 'weak' champion. The big teams that won it in the past - Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and going back a bit Liverpool - were teams that dominated domestically and mostly went on to compete, with some successes, in Europe. You get the feeling that whoever wins this season will be a poor team.

I feel sorry for Wenger, he's is a good, intelligent manager. He has probably made some mistakes in terms of buying the right players and stuck too long with some of his footballing theories but the players have yet to reward the man for his hard work and that won't happen until they focus.

What is wrong with this picture?

That's right, for Arsenal players, it's all about personal grooming and how they look on social media. I can tell you, categorically, that all these photos were taken either in the 90th minute of matches or after four hour training sessions. How can your hair still be perfect? None of them have even headed the ball..

And it's catching. Flamini, who doesn't even have any hair, won't head the ball either. He should have gone with his head on Sunday at the end of the first half against Chelsea, instead of practicing his Kung Fu.

Flamini misses..and in the background yet another Arsenal player doing his hair..

Success is within Wenger's reach. He just needs to adopt a 'shave it off' policy. Then maybe his team will get somewhere.

The 'ox' applauding his team mates' latest barnets.

Arsenal to win the league? Surely not...

Friday, 22 January 2016

Good Odds...

This is a situation I often end up with. Anyone who has looked at my vids will know that I am generally against the favourite in a race (often other horses too if I feel the price is too short).

In the example below, I had a small lay bet in running against Heron's Heir. In the end, however, I hedged / backed it and got out. The horse won. If you pick your races carefully and there is still time in the race, you can expect some fluctuation in price that will allow you to do this, if you feel it is necessary. The difficulty is getting out quickly and getting your maths right in what amounts to a few seconds!

Although the trade ended up as a small loss, when you look at the final risk / reward in terms of loss and profit you can see that you have ended up with excellent odds.

Graph below shows price fluctuation near the finish.

Thursday, 7 January 2016

When It Works Out...

I am not a regular Back to Lay trader, every man, his dog and his dog's mate is doing it, but there are races during the week, where I can't find any other angle into the race, so I do bet on the odd horse that I think will shorten in running.

The trick is to have a good feel for whether or not the horse will front run, if it's a good jumper or traveller, then pick the right types of race. A good jockey can help too.

Of course you are always vulnerable to your horse falling, running poorly, not front running as expected, being left in the stalls - all of which will kill your trade... and then some. Of course, other horses in the field can run into difficulty or fall too. This happened yesterday, where I was on Fletchers Flyer (fav.) and the second favourite, Value at Risk, fell early in the race.

The price on Fletchers Flyer immediately collapsed and went ridiculously short - below 1.17 from memory. I managed to get out / equalise at about 1.28. Betfair SP was 2.06 or thereabouts. Fletchers Flyer still managed to lose but there was of course already profit across the board.

Monday, 4 January 2016

The Golden Guus...

Well the 'fixer' is back and he's started to work his magic already. The last time he took over in 2009 his record was exemplary and many Chelsea fans wanted him to stay. I think he'll move on again after this season - mainly because he is probably thinking more about retirement than a career change and CFC will be looking to the future...again.

Top four? Maybe, but only if inconsistency continues to plague the 'top' teams. Europa League..? Let's hope not!