Friday, 27 February 2015

Betfair P&L...

So here is my Betfair P&L for Saturday 28 Feb 2015. Only ten markets but good profit. Most people would be happy with this sort of return...

Except for one thing of is actually Friday 27 Feb 2015 - so the races in the screen shots haven't yet been run.

Manipulating betting exchange / Betfair accounts on the web is nothing new - just look at virtually any site trying to sell you a betting / trading system! Video requires a little more work...but not much.

Check out this related You Tube video that I did. The video was also posted today, Friday 27 Feb 2015.

You Tube:

It took me about fifteen minutes to set up. The video could have been much more convincing if I'd wanted to put in more time.

Be careful.

Thursday, 26 February 2015

Fear is the Key...

So Manchester City failed again in the first leg against Barcelona. Again they played with fear. I actually felt a bit sorry for them. They have a fantastic squad - still the best in the Premiership in my view - and I thought they should have walked the title last season. I actually thought that they'd win it this season too (they may still) but it doesn't look great for them.

They can't play the 'inexperience card' any longer in the Champions League either. The players now have the CL experience and in any case, as individuals, most of them are Internationals and are used to playing at the highest level.

Despite not being a City fan, I like to see English clubs in the latter stages of the Champions League. This was just such a waste. The problem of course is Pellegrini. I am not sure what he was thinking setting up his team with two strikers. I understand that he may have thought that his team were stronger this year and Barcelona weaker - but essentially you are coming up against the best 'possession football' side in the world and with 4-4-2 you surely leave yourself exposed - especially against Messi, Neymar and Suarez. It was just painful to watch.

I actually thought City would win the match before kick-off...until I saw the formation.

Pellegrini tried to justify his tactical decision with City's second half performance. Yes, it 'looked' better but equally Barcelona were in that situation where they were happy with a 2-0 lead and had no need or desire to push on. That, and the usual over-enthusiastic commentary on the TV, almost made you believe that City had a chance of pulling the game back. They never did. Once city got the goal, Barcelona attacked a little more and really should have won it 3-1 with a last gasp penalty.

Still, City seem to be better away than at home - they'll need to be. Pellegrini is no doubt a decent man but he has all the charisma of a breeze block and I can't imagine that he is a great motivator. Maybe it all gets lost in translation of course.


I just don't think City will ever fulfill their true potential with the Chilean as their manager.

Tuesday, 24 February 2015

Chelsea v Burnley...

What a disaster! Took my son to Stamford Bridge on his birthday to witness what should have been an easy enough win - but it all went South in the end :(

Firstly let me say I am not one to moan about decisions - having been going to Chelsea since 1970, I have seen it all. Most Chelsea fans don't really believe in Mourinho's 'anti CFC campaign' by referees - even if the poor decisions have cost us about eight points (some think it is more like eleven) this season. I do, however, believe that we have had more 'bad breaks' this season than any of the big teams certainly - and more importantly they've been costly.

Basically what Mourinho is telling the refs with his ranting is:

"Next time one of my players goes down in the box, give him the benefit of the doubt...even things up a bit"

I'll tell you what, it isn't working!

Burnley going in with studs up again...1963...was this the last time that Chelsea won a penalty?

If there is any 'conspiracy' - it could simply be a 'general desire' from the FA not to have one dominant team. There is a lot of money in the Premiership, it is worth billions of pounds to the FA / UK Football and to have one team running away with the title would diminish the league substantially. The health of the Premier League comes first - before or even at the expense of any club. Surely this could not translate to an FA directive for Premiership referees..? You never know when money, jobs and livelihoods are at stake! Stephen Greaves, the Premiership's match delegate, stated that Atkinson got all four key decisions right - meanwhile Atkinson is on an 'enforced break' for his poor performance.

We were up in the 'nose-bleed' seats in the East Stand and I saw a couple of appalling decisions and my eyesight is atrocious - I'd even forgotten to bring my new specs so had to use my old prescription!

Just bad timing? No. Even in my casual game twice a week I could do this to other players if I chose too (and make it look accidental) - a touch late here, hang a boot out there, you know what is coming even if you don't see it, and the majority of the time you are aware of who is around you.

I cannot understand what Atkinson was thinking - do refs get tired? I mean could he have been suffering from the mid-week game that he refereed?

If that performance had taken place in Belarus (see my last post) or maybe Italy or South America - Atkinson's performance would have come under real scrutiny - perhaps to the point of him even being the subject of an investigation. That's how poor a day he had.

As it stands he is a good and, no doubt, honest ref who had a terrible day.

I for one, would love to see technology extended from 'goal-line' to review: suspected offsides that lead to goals, red card / tackles and penalties. I don't buy into the fears of the game being delayed or broken up by reviewing decisions - because the game is already broken up in a melee of players and officials when a bad decision is made. We could get rid of most post-match punditry too with far fewer talking points!

We will lose Matic for three games - for his reaction - albeit brought about by Atkinson's in-action throughout the game. No retrospective action will be taken against Barnes.

Ultimately, however, Chelsea didn't play well. They deserved to win, but scoring more goals wouldn't leave the team open to the effects of poor decisions. The 'defence first' philosophy is fine - until you get a day like Saturday.

There was at least one highlight on the day. We were sitting next to the commentary positions and I spotted Pat Nevin (Chelsea 1980's) covering the game. We had a quick chat after the match and he too was incensed by the foul on Matic. Surely as a professional, impartial commentator, he can't possibly wear blue-tinted specs like me.. ;-)

Saturday, 21 February 2015

Ghost Match...

FC Slutsk and FC Shakhtyor Soligorsk

I have occasionally been suspicious of weekday low grade races - races that I have been betting in. The prices can move 'erratically' and then there are the horses that should make it home and just don't or the jockeys that drop the reins too soon near the finish - and so on and so forth. There is not a lot you can do about it and I suppose that sometimes they break your way and other times not. You just have to accept that there will always be 'bent' races.

The same goes for other sports such as football. Again the feeling is that any match fixing goes on in the lower or lesser known leagues because the top leagues are under scrutiny by default.

Apparently police are investigating two Belarus clubs over a potential match fixing scam. Actually 'match fixing' is the wrong term because although FC Slutsk and Shakhter Soligorsk posted match reports on their websites - the game never even took place!

It ended with an unlikely 'victory' for FC Slutsk (is that the ugliest team name in football?).

These 'ghost' games are rare and just part of the bigger picture in football where nearly £100 billion is laundered every year.

I have had bets on both these teams in the past and teams from other less well known corners of the globe.

All that number crunching for nothing! :(

Thursday, 19 February 2015

Dutching on the Exchanges...

So I have finally sorted out my You Tube issues. Apparently it was a video compression 'bug' - anyway posting again.  There were some horrible race days in early Feb with many abandoned meetings - which gave me the opportunity to do a few videos - albeit on the All Weather.

Here I dutch a few horses as I had no strong opinions in the race, other than that I wanted to be against Longside (fav) and be on Gerrards Slip (outsider). Unfortunately I did not feel strongly enough about Gerrards Slip to lump on!

Anyway, dutching just gives you another option.

You Tube:

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

You Tube Issues...

Desperately trying to put up more videos but have had no luck uploading for the last two weeks. I will keep trying. In the meantime enjoy tonight's Premiership games...

Friday, 6 February 2015

Please God. Not Blatter...

So probably the most hated man in football is set to run for another term as FIFA president.

It looks as if there will be some better organised opposition to Blatter in the May 2015 elections but don't bet against him manoevering himself into a fifth term.

Sepp Blatter trying to look cute

It's a disgrace really, if Sepp Blatter was a politician in the free world he would have been forced to step down years ago. Instead, this patronising, arrogant, most probably corrupt autocrat continues to operate his own mini-dictatorship and drag the name of football through the sea bed.

Sea bed? Yes. Blatter is a Sea Cucumber.

See the likeness?

Sea Cucumbers can turn to liquid. They can contract their muscles and jettison some of their internal organs out of their anus...and they live in the sea...on the bed.

So please collapse your 'spine', liquefy your body and trickle your way back to the ocean.

It's not the end of the world Sepp, as you know Sea Cucumbers can breed sexually or asexually...which is lucky for you - the ocean can be a vacuous and lonely place.

Monday, 2 February 2015

See The World...

Did anyone watch the 'See the World' ride at Wincanton the other day... Video was playing up so I didn't catch it but I did hear it on commentary. It seemed as if the horse completely lost the bit and virtually pulled up - before horse and jockey managed to gather themselves together and go on to win.

It actually saved me a few quid for a change because I had laid the 'likely' winner and not the 'likely' loser in running.

Nice to be on the right side of it!