Trading System Update...

I thought I should update where I am on the Trading System that I was working on.

It started out as a very selective system - and although I don't have an 'itchy trigger finger' - going days in a row without a trade might have proven problematic over the long term.

When I last updated at the end of March we had around 8 points of profit. I spent most of April tweaking things and trying to work out how to get more trades into the market. As a result, at the beginning of May, we hadn't moved much and were still around the 8 point mark but I'd only had a few trades due to this process.

Approaching the middle of May I kicked on again in earnest with some good results. As the months and years go by I will check all my results against distance, course, price, conditions, weight and other useful criteria and perhaps eliminate certain trades that look unprofitable. It's a very long process but there is really no shortcut. This is not a system that can be back-tested. It is something very unique.

The results shown are for a three week period (ten day break over half term)
from 11 May - 10 June. Profit = 48.25 points. It might be wise to expect some kind of draw-down quite shortly...who knows.

Post Note: Apologies, the results sheet below does not lend itself well to the post / blogger. It's probably too large. From now on I will probably just have to post totals only.

Trading System...

To prove a stats based betting system I would normally want 2000 bets and a good volume of action (otherwise you'd be testing for years!). It's 'upsetting' to see people using or buying a system after only a hundred bets or so - just because they have seen good profits during that period. Standard deviation will generally make fools of them and the system.

I have been working on a small side project - a 'trading system' - very selective but it is interesting and I think that even with only two and a half weeks of trading it will be profitable. I will have to take it through the summer but I don't see how the results could fundamentally change.

So how can I be more sure of my trading system after less than a 100 trades than a stats based betting system after 1000 bets? Simply because my system relies on my 'actions' - trading 'in' and then 'out' of a position. As a trader you are in control and acting on what you are seeing on the screen. On a 'bet and forget' system you have no control, although there are other benefits of course, such as taking the 'emotion' out of the equation or saving a lot of time because often you can place your bets in advance of a race - at BSP for example.

The first few results are below.

Trade No.53 was an error, one that I am unlikely to repeat - but it has to go into the P/L, after all an errant click of the mouse can happen and next time it could go in my favour.

The profit figures are to 1 pt. or £1.00 trades if you like. I prefer to use 'minimum units' to show P&L as it strips away all the nonsense. ("We made 10,000 points of profit...to £10,000 stakes!").

The strike rate is high and there is no reason for the individual losing trades to be any bigger than the individual winning trades - except perhaps for two or three times a month when you might suffer a loss of your whole 1 pt. / trading stake. Also, you are not reliant on getting in at the best possible price, this isn't about scalping or trying to steal a few ticks, it's about large / solid movement.

So far it has yielded 8.25 points of profit. The great thing is that at this stage of the market there is reasonable liquidity and so trading stakes can be in the hundreds and probably thousands.

As there are so few trades, maybe I will use it for my retirement one day! Succeed or fail, I will try and remember to report back in a few months on how it's going.

It would be great if it works. No in-depth knowledge of horse racing is required. I found this by investing a little time - nothing more. If I came up with this - then most people reading this blog could too.

Betfair P&L...

So here is my Betfair P&L for Saturday 28 Feb 2015. Only ten markets but good profit. Most people would be happy with this sort of return...



Except for one thing of course...today is actually Friday 27 Feb 2015 - so the races in the screen shots haven't yet been run.



Manipulating betting exchange / Betfair accounts on the web is nothing new - just look at virtually any site trying to sell you a betting / trading system! Video requires a little more work...but not much.

Check out this related You Tube video that I did. The video was also posted today, Friday 27 Feb 2015.

You Tube:



It took me about fifteen minutes to set up. The video could have been much more convincing if I'd wanted to put in more time.

Be careful.