Tuesday, 29 November 2016

Premier League Bets Update...

So in the run up to Christmas I am just reviewing the Premier League Ante Post bets.

First apologies for not giving Arsenal a mention! It's just that I lay them every season and I have done it for so long they don't even register in my thinking anymore! That's no disrespect to the club - they've had fantastic successes - it's just that from a purely betting perspective I haven't been able to see them winning the league in the last ten years or so. Wenger insists that his team have grown from 'boys to men' and that this could be their season - we'll see. I always look to lay them 'shortish' during the season - around 4 or 5/1 but missed the boat this time around. So no back or lay.

Chelsea: The main pick - having over-staked this I will be laying off a bit now at around 2/1. The price at the beginning of the season looked generous at 13/2. At one point they went as big as 30/1. (On that basis stick some on United - now at 46/1! ;)

Liverpool: Looking good but Coutinho being out for a month or two could be a blow. He is their Eden Hazard and he is bound to be missed.

I had a bit on Spurs for a trade - but that has probably bitten the dust - they just can't seem to get it together at the moment and Kane only now seems to be waking up.

The Man City lay is sitting around 'level' for me. They usually start well so perhaps should have waited for a shorter price. May scratch at some point to guarantee decent free bet / profit with Chelsea back.

So to Manchester Utd. - what a disaster! I thought they would be up there and of course they should be - but relieved no back money went on them. The pressure is well and truly on Mourinho. The only saving grace for the 'Portuguese Conte' is that United seem to give their managers time...and too much money..

Stoke and West Ham were 'mentions' to do well - they've been pretty rubbish - but there is a bit of time to go. In West Ham's case the new stadium could have been a boost or a negative and it has proved to be the latter.

So a mixed bag but the main picks Chelsea (back) and Man City (lay) looking good and neutral respectively - so money made.

Ante Post markets are notoriously bad value, with the bookies anyway - but trading your way through a season can really reap dividends and can be a lot of fun - Lay Arsenal at 4/1 hedge at 10/1, back Chelsea at 28/1 hedge at 2/1, back Liverpool at 16/1 hedge at 4/1 ....and we're not even in December yet... Leicester might have crucified you last season (depending on how you traded) and Chelsea staying at the top of the league from start to finish the season before - might not have been good for business - but in most (recent)seasons there is volatility and you can do a lot worse than take the big prices / lay the short prices on the main contenders as they move in the market during the early months of the season.

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