Friday, 20 November 2015

Financial Charts...Racing Charts...

There has been a fair bit of discussion on the subject of using financial charting / technical analysis techniques and applying them to pre race trading charts. There are obvious advantages of having a good charting suite for the exchanges.

On the exchange graphs, you will very often see prices bounce off resistance and support points during the course of the day as the markets develop, but liquidity isn't great early on. There is no doubt that you get traders who simply won't let a price fall below or rise above a certain price.

Drifting horses often continue to drift and shortening horses often continue to shorten - in certain types of races. So trends often develop.

Volume is also underestimated. It is important in financial trading and I would use it in pre race trading on horses.

Yet where you can be profitable on being a pure financial charting analyst with some basic knowledge to back you up, I am not sure the same is true in the horse racing markets - especially if you are using exchange charts which do not give you a realistic view of picture due it being 'compressed' over time. Some popular software like Bet Angel can solve this problem.

It got me thinking about general trends regarding my horse racing results. I started doing daily results charts recently for one of my systems - it is a very consistent and profitable system. It also has roughly the same high number of bets each month - many hundreds. In the monthly charts I couldn't see any real pattern. September's chart is below.

October and November (to date) results charts are similar. I then decided to do a cumulative chart for the last eleven weeks or so:

Bingo! well...maybe. There is a kind of diagonal channel that has developed. Maybe there is something in it...if you are having close to the same number of bets each month, high turnover, on the same types of horses, on the same range of prices and the same kind of monthly profit - maybe you can expect similar patterns. (Summer results will probably be different to winter).

In the future, will it be possible to judge rough entry points and back or lay my picks accordingly?

Bit of fun!

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