Champions League...

Betfair have a good Champions League offer tonight:

Only new customers I suspect so I can't take advantage!:

Chelsea, Arsenal and Barcelona all to win at 18/1

Or you can take the teams individually:

Arsenal 4/1

Chelsea 8/1

Barcelona 4/1

Oh England...

So it was not to be against Wales. You could feel the tide turning in the game with plenty of time left. Pity I didn't break my golden rule about not betting in games where I have an emotional interest - would've cleaned up!

Once again, this young England side that promised much at the start of Lancaster's reign, haven't really delivered. They only ever seem to be able to play 60 minutes of rugby against decent opposition and I now fear for us against Australia.

Many are critical of the decision not to kick that last penalty but maybe the angle would have beaten Farrell - maybe not. He was kicking well.

We just looked naive in the lead up to the Welsh try and there wasn't much in the way of on-field leadership as Wales began to get on top.

Bring back Manu Tuilagi? The man is a match-winner...just the 'small' matter of the assault charge.


Lucky to ever play for England again?

It's Official...

...Same ol', same ol'...

Well it's official then - Manchester City aren't in fact playing any better in the Premiership than they were last season...it's just that everyone else is crap! It looks like the Champions League will just be another embarrassing outing for them - I mean Juventus have started worse than Chelsea :(

Galacticos...

Louis Van Gaal with his giant Filofax..

Manchester Utd. fans must be lamenting the departure of Sir Alex Fergusson and David Gill more than ever.. the 'model' that brought them so much success in years gone by, seems to have been replaced with a 'buy first, work it out later' approach. It's almost as if they have adopted the Galacticos handbook to buying players, yet worryingly without the guarantee that the players are even world class...

Close to £250m has been spent since Van Gaal took over at the start of 2014 and with that sort of spend, many owners would be expecting success this season. Amazingly Van Gaal, presumably with the board's backing, has stated that the team are still very much a 'work in progress' and that he would like to win the title before his contract is up in 2017; that gives him another two seasons including this one. It's just as well because it looks as if the team have a long way to go...

Some of LVG's thinking might be questionable. He has been quoted as saying:

"I have not bought Martial for me, I have bought him for the next manager of Manchester United"

Er, well that's very good of you Louis, but why? You could always have spent the £36m (possibly rising to £58m) on a brilliant proven talent, to help you during your tenure. Maybe it was the Glazer's idea.

I like Van Gaal as a manager, he's a great character, another one of those 'mad genius' types like Mourinho. They are friends. He is one of those managers that you don't fire easily, but I wonder if United will have to do just that if they want to win anything meaningful before 2017.

First Day Back...

So, first day back. Not a great day but not a disaster either. Forget about the results, what I am trying to highlight here is the importance of discipline. It might help some of you. I know when I first started betting / trading, many years ago, I occasionally 'chased my bets' and it is ill-advised!

I run through my end of day results in this video:




Thanks.

Blue's Blues...

Firstly I am well aware that I have not posted for a while. Unfortunately I am not one of those prolific - 'blog from anywhere' - type of bloggers. I am in the middle of a six week holiday which I intend to enjoy, although I have to say that it is quite shameful taking it in the middle of summer with all the horse racing that is on!

I felt I had to post though after Chelsea's terrible start to the season... I say 'start to the season' but perhaps that should be 'end of preseason' - they just don't look as if their season has even begun!

More worrying is the fact that my beloved Jose doesn't see, or pretends not to see, that we were woefully under-prepared for the first two matches; slow to the ball, losing the ball too easily, poor passing and just generally not the cohesive unit that we were last season.


Away grounds can be lonely places...

Dressing room bust up? Eva? Chelsea have had 'player power' incidents in the past with Andre Villas-Boas and Mourinho has also made 'statements' in the past by making odd decisions and substitutions.

The rest of the league will be loving it. That's ok. Let's just batten down the hatches put a win on the board and start grinding out those results. Maybe by the end of the season we can wipe a few smiles off a few faces...Come on Chels!

Losing Runs...

When I was young...once...a handicapper in the US talked to me about losing runs. He told me that the problem with any betting is that once you start you cannot stop. He wasn't talking about 'addiction' or 'problem gambling', he was telling me that you shouldn't stop because you never truly know if you are in a bad run, a good run, a run that is just starting, or a run that is just ending. You just have to keep going. He was right. The quickest way to eat up your bank is to stop because you think your efforts might not be working - then maybe switching to something else and possibly suffering the same fate.

Imagine this. Stored in the building are 10,000 balls. There are 6000 white balls and 4000 black balls. The white balls represent the winners, the black balls represent the losers. Both coloured balls have equal value. One day the building explodes and balls are strewn everywhere and your task is to pick them up. It's conceivable that you might come across 5, 10, even 15 black balls first. Yet out there in the carnage are 6000 white balls waiting to be picked up - you just haven't found them yet.

If you started betting and 'picked up' 5, 10, even 15 losers, you might be inclined to throw in the towel there and then. Yet out there in 'betting land' the winners are just waiting to be found.

Pick up all 10,000 balls or bets and you are ahead of the game.



Losing runs are nothing unusual - you just have to know what to expect and that is where many punters fail. In the past, I have suffered 11 losses in a row at around even money. That shouldn't be a surprise - odds of just over 2000/1 of that occurring. If you are betting enough volume, every so often you will hit batches of consecutive losses, just as you will have blocks of winners. Of course 'in a row', 'consecutive losses' or 'losing run' terms can be misleading. The damage can be far worse than your likely worst 'consecutive loss'. In the above example I think I went 11 losses (consecutively) 2 winners, then another 5 consecutive losses, before recovery. So it's the overall 'streak' that's important. Losing 11 in a row at 1/1 or 2.0 (50%) is just about statistically bang on - in terms of likely consecutive losses at those odds and you could hit them during the first week that you start betting.

The same handicapper told me that there had been a colleague of his, another pro, who bet the handicap in basketball. You are generally betting at odds of 1.91 just as you do in the NFL - we have the market in the UK too. Anyway, he allegedly hit around 30 losers in a row! 30 losers at odds on! I'm not going to work out the odds - my calculator probably won't have enough space - but it will be tens or even hundreds of millions to one. I think the guy was asked to go on national radio in the US to tell his story!

With the volume I bet, I have been very lucky not to hit higher numbers in my losing streaks (partly because I occasionally dutch a few in some systems) but 'the big one' will probably come one day - you just have to treat it as a symptom of your betting. Prepare for it and ride it out.

So if you are confident that you are finding value on a consistent basis, then don't let the bad runs put you off your stride. One thing I have learned, however, is that a losing run usually goes on longer than you think - so keep your discipline.

Good luck!