Liverpool v Man City...

Two decent attacks on show this evening (17.30 Kick Off). Liverpool would be the bet at the prices - 6/4 on Betfair looks very reasonable. If City drifted out past 9/4 then I might consider them instead..

The papers are full of 'Aguero's return' from suspension. More importantly, in my opinion, they have Fernandinho back - although you wouldn't even know he was playing - there has been so little fuss made of his return.

City have a terrible record at Anfield in the Premier League, having won only once back in 2003! They have lost 13 and drawn 5.

The Reds have scored in their previous 19 home Premier League games against City.

Team news for Liverpool:

Coutinho out
Matip out

Team news for Man City:

Aguero returns
Fernandinho returns
Sane out
Stones questionable


Likely Teams in Fruit Pastille design:


If they don't play well you can always pop them in your mouth and chew them...

Good luck.

Small Man Complex...

Great game on Saturday - Man City v Chelsea. A pity about the conclusion. Still, we've known for a while that Aguero has a 'dark side' especially when he is made to feel 'small'. It's as if he was spawned from deep within Mordor.


Mummy never bought me a trampoline...so I'll use David Luiz instead.. (2013)


Oops, I did it again... for I must destroy all mankind..especially if they're Brazilian.. (2016)

There are also 'rules' in football that players generally abide by. The fans may see a match as war but the players are usually sportsmanlike with one another, otherwise it would be mayhem. Of course not every player has the same moral code..

Cahill scores own goal.

I will taunt you, like the little shit I am, and unleash the fires of Mordor upon you Gareth..


Ha ha, now I will pat you on the head to really rub it in...and infect you with my...paw thing..


Now I will run away and let my mini Orc friend, David Silva, take over..

Cahill, Azpi and Chelsea claim victory.

"Look yonder Gary, you can see his head poking above those blades of grass. Let's catch him and put him in a jar, so you can take him home for your kids to play with."
"No Azpi, we are of the Light - the realm of proper men. Let the little one return to the Dark Lands during his four match suspension and reflect on why he has such a major character defect."

Then we had to endure the post match interviews:

John Stones' gibberish was just embarrassing - might as well have been deciphering hieroglyphics. Equally amusing was Pep's view that Aguero's tackle wasn't intentional - you've got to love him.

Anyway, all that really matters is that CFC 'mashed' them and that David Luiz' career wasn't ended.

Give Aguero the extra three match ban he deserves and be done with it.

Premier League Bets Update...

So in the run up to Christmas I am just reviewing the Premier League Ante Post bets.

First apologies for not giving Arsenal a mention! It's just that I lay them every season and I have done it for so long they don't even register in my thinking anymore! That's no disrespect to the club - they've had fantastic successes - it's just that from a purely betting perspective I haven't been able to see them winning the league in the last ten years or so. Wenger insists that his team have grown from 'boys to men' and that this could be their season - we'll see. I always look to lay them 'shortish' during the season - around 4 or 5/1 but missed the boat this time around. So no back or lay.

Chelsea: The main pick - having over-staked this I will be laying off a bit now at around 2/1. The price at the beginning of the season looked generous at 13/2. At one point they went as big as 30/1. (On that basis stick some on United - now at 46/1! ;)

Liverpool: Looking good but Coutinho being out for a month or two could be a blow. He is their Eden Hazard and he is bound to be missed.

I had a bit on Spurs for a trade - but that has probably bitten the dust - they just can't seem to get it together at the moment and Kane only now seems to be waking up.

The Man City lay is sitting around 'level' for me. They usually start well so perhaps should have waited for a shorter price. May scratch at some point to guarantee decent free bet / profit with Chelsea back.

So to Manchester Utd. - what a disaster! I thought they would be up there and of course they should be - but relieved no back money went on them. The pressure is well and truly on Mourinho. The only saving grace for the 'Portuguese Conte' is that United seem to give their managers time...and too much money..

Stoke and West Ham were 'mentions' to do well - they've been pretty rubbish - but there is a bit of time to go. In West Ham's case the new stadium could have been a boost or a negative and it has proved to be the latter.

So a mixed bag but the main picks Chelsea (back) and Man City (lay) looking good and neutral respectively - so money made.

Ante Post markets are notoriously bad value, with the bookies anyway - but trading your way through a season can really reap dividends and can be a lot of fun - Lay Arsenal at 4/1 hedge at 10/1, back Chelsea at 28/1 hedge at 2/1, back Liverpool at 16/1 hedge at 4/1 ....and we're not even in December yet... Leicester might have crucified you last season (depending on how you traded) and Chelsea staying at the top of the league from start to finish the season before - might not have been good for business - but in most (recent)seasons there is volatility and you can do a lot worse than take the big prices / lay the short prices on the main contenders as they move in the market during the early months of the season.

150 000/1 Double...

I'm not sure what it is about my choice of Spanish football matches at present.. I have been involved in only two La Liga games in the last week or so. In both I was hoping for a goal or two but wasn't quite expecting the final results of either!

Last night I was on the Las Palmas v Celta Vigo match in La Liga. Just like the Espanyol v Eibar game - it was a six goal thriller, a player sent off, with the away team going three goals up by half time, only to be hauled back to 3-3!

Celta scored three goals within 16 first half minutes, only for Las Palmas to respond with three goals within 16 second half minutes.


Beautiful symmetry...

I should have gone for the 3-3 result double :)

If you'd gone for the 3-3 result double - odds of around 120/1 for each game - you would have won at odds of around 15000/1.

If you'd gone for the 3-3 result double, with a sending off (in both matches) at odds of say 9/4 (remember it's La Liga!) - then you're on a 150,000/1 (approx) winner.

If you'd also gone for the away team being 0-3 up by half time in both games...well, someone else can do the maths but we're talking many many millions to one.

One In a Thousand...

Just going to start by saying what a great win for Chelsea, one they needed badly. At Arsenal they were all at sea - now it's three clean sheets in a row under a changed defensive system. I am not totally convinced that Chelsea's worries at the back are over but at least the Blues have Zouma to come back and Terry available.

Anyway, to another incredible match on Saturday - Espanyol v Eibar.

I traded this game and it was unreal. Eibar are mid-table, Espanyol close to the relegation zone. Espanyol hadn't won at home in four matches going into this game and are a team with low morale at present. By the end of the first half Espanyol were 0-3 down, courtesy of some shocking defending (worse than Man Utd yesterday :) only for them to launch an unlikely comeback in the second half.

At 2-3 in the 84' Caicedo was sent off for Espanyol - down to ten men you were pretty much thinking game over (again!) - only for Baptistao to score in the second minute of injury time to make it 3-3 and snatch a point.

Like an idiot I grabbed the Espanyol 'win trading chart' because they were 'in my head' at the time - when I should have grabbed the draw trading chart. Anyway you can get the general idea.


Nantucket Sleigh Ride...

Clowns...

Is this the beginning of the end...?

So we've had the rise in hate crimes since Brexit. In America ethnic minorities have been abused and even set on fire in the street as a result of Trump rhetoric. The majority of people that perpetrate these crimes have no doubt always held the same views - some may have been borderline and have now been tipped over the edge. It shows how people can easily be swayed - how as soon as they feel they are supported by "the state" or by a powerful figurehead, their actions become 'justified'. Comparisons with Nazi Germany are not too far wide of the mark. If people feel marginalised or unrepresented - they can be mobilised to affect change.

It's not always a bad thing to be a contrarian.

Rebellion can seep into all aspects of life - sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. Change is in the air and I think it's only because we are who we are (call it being British! :) that we will not allow this 'shift' to become full blown anarchy.

Take the 'clown craze'. This happens every year in the lead up to Halloween. This year, however, it is particularly bad. It wouldn't surprise me if this was all rolled up with what has been happening politically in the US and the UK. The boundaries of what is acceptable are rolled back. Something that should be harmless fun has become something a little more sinister...

Cue - haunting song by Iron Maiden - "Tears of a Clown"

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics...

Lies, damn lies and statistics... I hate to say it but Disraeli was right! It is also an 'issue' in betting and trading for many punters.

Do stats matter in football trading (or probably any sports trading for that matter). The answer is 'Yes' and 'No'.

How many times have you researched a bet, only to find that the result is the opposite of what you predicted?

How many times have you heard phrases like: "Not betting in the French League (French League 2) ...no goals" or "Dutch and Swedish leagues produce lots of goals.." etc. It's largely irrelevant - all market prices are largely correct and most people wouldn't know value if they saw it. Is a 0-0 draw value at 8.6 but not 8.2? Are Man Utd value to win at 1.42 but not 1.36? Few can really take advantage.

In the leagues / teams with fewer goals in them, the odds on goals being scored are higher and vice versa.

The average punter may as well forget about stats.

So why bother betting or trading at all if stats offer only limited advantage and there is scant value around? Critically, most of us have the ability to watch football matches. If you can read a game - you can get your edge. (Not forgetting pre-match traders but that's another blog post..:)

Do I use stats? Simplistic answer, yes. I use stats to model (in an unsophisticated manner) the match or event. If the 'behaviour' in play is as, or close to, what I have predicted pre-event, I go with it. If not I am likely to exit. I suspect though that there are many in-play traders who don't even bother with stats and do very well - they just go by what they see. I like to have some kind of plan.

The other night I was trading in the 'Under 2.5 goals' market in Celta Vigo v Barcelona (why you might wonder! Ok, Messi wasn't playing and I know Celta can be tight in defence - but even without these stats I still would have looked at the game!) Celta's previous three La Liga matches at home finished: 2-1, 0-4, 0-1. Barcelona's previous three La Liga matches away finished: 0-5, 1-5, 0-1. Last season the corresponding fixture finished 4-1 in favour of Celta Vigo. Did I think the game would go over 2.5 goals? Almost certainly. So why trade the Unders? Simply because the odds 'decay' from kick off and I could watch the game, deciding when to enter and when to exit.

From memory the odds on offer at the start of the game were around 2.72. I watched for a few minutes and then got in at 2.6. It was all Barcelona but Celta were holding there own in defence. Then Celta started launching their own attacks - the game began opening up and I started coming out of my position. This was around the 20 min. mark and I was laying at around 1.98. A couple of minutes later Celta scored. I would have been on for about a 30% profit. The goal just game a bit soon / I didn't exit quickly enough - so it was a scratch trade 0.00. No profit, but I was able to avoid a loss by exiting when I felt things were about to go against me.

The final score was 4-3 to Celta Vigo!

The important message here is not to limit yourself by eliminating leagues or teams for one reason or another. Odds are a great leveller - pretty much every football league offers the same opportunities for profit. Choose a market that suits the match that you are watching - sit back and enjoy the game!

Traders Dream Match...

Fantastic trading opportunity the other night between Celtic and Manchester City (Champions League). I won't pretend that I was 'in' it! I just chalked it off as being too much of a one-sided affair. I still had the thrashing by Barcelona in my head and even though City are no Barcelona and Celtic had the advantage of playing at home, I still couldn't bring myself to consider the game and chalked it off in favour of others.

In the event it would have been a perfect match to trade with Celtic taking the lead each time in a 3-3 draw but never really looking as if they had enough control to hang on to the lead.

When I finally turned on the TV, goals had already flown in - so I just sat back and watched the rest of the game which was hugely entertaining.


Celtic's 'tidal wave' trading chart..

Anyone wondering (which you're probably not!) why the blog is more football orientated these days as opposed to racing focused. Simply, I am trying to trade more football (especially during winter) and less racing - reversing the ratio really. There a many reasons, domestic and otherwise. There is also the fact that I really don't enjoy watching racing and love football. I will still probably do the odd big race meeting on the blog - as the posts have a good record!

Stupid English Money...

Stupid English money..?

Well it finally happened - the one billion pound barrier was shattered by the end of Premier League transfer window. The good thing is that the slice of the pie is getting bigger for lower Premier League clubs, so in essence greater parity in the league should follow. Watford spending £50m says something, Palace shelling out over £25m for Benteke says something too (but I'm not sure if it's good!) The bottom placed club will still get around £80m. The bad news is that other football clubs on the continent and in the lower leagues are sure to suffer, with transfer fees going through the roof how will they be able to afford players? The German's call it 'stupid English money' and they have a point.

Perversely, the astronomical fee paid by Man Utd for Paul Pogba could yet turn out to be the best value deal of the transfer market - it's just the £20m paid to his agent, Mino Raiola, that irks - even if it did cost him a few hours of his time.

Premier League...

The Right Man?

So it's up and running again - as well as the hype, the ridiculous post match questions posed to managers, revolting Sky Sports running the show...I could go on. I suppose we just have to take it. On the positive side at least Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher are reunited. I think Neville actually knows his stuff - just a pity he couldn't get the message across at Valencia.

They were at it again last night before the Chelsea game - something like:
David Jones:"Your not a big fan of defenders doing Cruyff turns in the six yard box are you Jamie?"
Jamie Carragher: "I've had five or six foreign managers and not one of them would want me - or any defender - to be doing Cruyff turns in the six-yard box."
Gary Neville: "You couldn't do them anyway (chuckles)."

Must be in the contract that they need to have a go at each other at least once a session.

So this season:

I took Chelsea at 13/2 to win the title. It's the first time I have bet on them to win the league (I am a fan so tend not to bet on my team and in previous seasons the price has been prohibitively short). I don't think you can look at last season. The players simply decided not to play for Mourinho. In a 'company' the whole lot would have been fired and replaced - but you can't do that in football, certainly not mid-season. I think that price will get a lot shorter at some point in the season for a decent trade - the price just looked ridiculous to me for a squad of their calibre with no European football.

I think Conte is a superb manager. When he took over at Juve they had finished 7th or 8th in the previous season - he then took them to three consecutive titles. He has done well with an Italian National team devoid of any real talent. He is hugely passionate but can be petulant too sometimes. Let's hope he can take the pressure of the Premier League without cracking or offending too many people.

Liverpool could be a threat, no Europe. They obviously won at Arsenal but they also let in three goals and Arsenal don't have a particularly potent attack, so that would worry me. Liverpool will be good to watch but will probably just fall short.

I had a bit on Spurs at around 11/1 - for a trade really. Based on their performance last season and barring Kane having a confidence crisis after the Euros, they could put a run together and go much shorter.

I have laid Man City because I felt the Guardiola factor pulled them in to a price that was layable. They have bought a lot of players but something still bothers me about them when I watch them play. Pep might or might not sort them out. 3.25 is not a price I would be taking for them to win the league. I might trade out of the lay if they drop a few places.

So to Jose and Man Utd (sob). You almost think 'he will win it because he has to'. Not for Man Utd but for himself after what happened last season. He has a monstrous ego that needs to feed now and that can only be good for United. I wonder if Mourinho will still be at United in five, six, seven years time. I hope not because it would mean that Chelsea didn't do enough to keep him. I have profit on them if they win because of the Man City lay - but I will just leave it there and perhaps watch them all the way to a top two finish.

Leicester: I just think the Champions League and the loss of Kante will kill off any chance of a repeat title

Best of the rest, West Ham. Stoke to do better than expected maybe.

Worthy Winners?

Portugal ended up winning Euro 2016 even though if we ran the tournament again they would be unlikely to end up on top. Were they dull? Yes. Will they care? No.

Results sequence. Draw (1-1) Draw (0-0) Draw (3-3) Win (1-0 a.e.t) Draw (1-1) Win (2-0) Win (1-0 a.e.t).

Just the one win in normal time then against Wales. Wouldn't it be great if England could manage the same kind of form!

It goes without saying that Portugal are far from the best team in Europe but they have a plan that they execute well in every game.

Renato Sanchez had to to be the highlight though for Portugal.

At least my bets didn't do too badly.

My main bet to lay Spain to win their Group at 1.67 won.

Top Scorer saver on Griezmann at 11/1 won.

Player of the Tournament - Griezmann 14/1 also won.

So good profits.

No Pain, No Gain...

It's always been fun having a poke at Cristiano. I mean there is no doubt that he's an above average footballer but he does set himself up for a few...

He posted this photo of himself on Instagram ahead of the Poland game, showing off his 'muscles' after a training session - with the title 'no pain, no gain' (original or what?).


Clench...relax...insert rubber hose..

Don't be a sad, needy, little man. Take one of those rubber tubes that are hanging around your neck and give yourself a colonoscopy - it might relieve you of some of your own bullshit.

Poland must be quaking in their boots..

England Out...

The effects of England leaving the European Union might be talked about for a year or two...the effects of England leaving the European Championships will be talked about for the next fifty years..


Next best thing if you can't stick your head in the sand..

It was of course inevitable not just because we are England and it's a big tournament but because anyone who watched Iceland play through the competition could see that they were a well a organised team, very hard to break down, with a cutting edge on the break. England by contrast showed little composure and little self belief.

I was cringing that afternoon as our pundits were already talking about England v France, which was a great contest on paper, but no doubt would have been even worse, as France would have fully exposed us.

I have to say I got the game wrong, I thought it would be a comfortable draw for Iceland after 90 minutes - that would have been a great result for them. In the end they went one better - fantastic really. They will all be heroes in Iceland.

Some Icelandic football facts:

1. Iceland don't have a professional football league as such.
2. Their manager, Heimir Hallgrímsson, is a practicing dentist.
3. Population of Iceland around 330,000.
4. Goalkeeper Hannes Halldorsson, is a film director who directed the video for Iceland's entry in the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest.

It's a beautiful story.

Euro 2016

Really looking forward to the next month or so. I have only had a few pre-tournament bets.

I have laid Spain quite heavily in Group D. Lay at 1.67.
I have also laid Spain in the 'Top 2 Finish' market in the group. Lay at 1.18.

Small liabilities so happy. I think Group D will be a lot tougher for Spain than the odds suggest.

I have also taken a few of the French in the 'Player of the Tournament' market - Matuidi (40/1) Griezmann (14/1) and Pogba (11/1). Not very original.

For 'Top Scorer' I took a big price on Romelu Lukaku (22/1) and have had a saver on Griezmann (11/1). Lukaku might do absolutely nothing but if the most expensive squad, in terms of transfer values, can finally put it together, Belgium might go far and you fancy him for a few goals along the way.

I'd like to fit Eden Hazard in somewhere - back to some kind of form at the end of the season but that would be betting with the heart! I think Belgium are really the value at 11/1 and Croatia would be the outside pick at 25/1.

Enjoy it!

Can They Do It?

Can England win Euro 2016? Or get anywhere close?

I think 'no' has to be the resounding answer to that. I thought the Turkey game was an absolute disaster and although I couldn't face watching the Australia game the scoreline doesn't suggest that we did much better.

England have some young talent - but we've had that before. We used to have the best midfield in the world on paper with Lampard, Gerrard, Cole, Scholes and so on - and we never got anywhere in the big tournaments.

Is Hodgson going to manage to pull it all together in the time remaining? I doubt it. In the end it will probably be nerves and pressure on young shoulders that will see us exit the competition prematurely.

Let's hope I'm wrong. I would hate to see, what might turn out to be, another 'golden generation' go to waste due to poor management or preparation.

Well look on the bright side, we certainly haven't peaked too soon!

Champions...

Party time for the Leicester boys

Well they've only gone and done it!

It wasn't really a surprise that it happened last night at Chelsea (see last post).

I forget the number of times Chelsea have looked down and out against Spurs at Stamford Bridge, only to rally and get a result. Spurs haven't managed to win at the Bridge since 1990.

Still, I think there is hope for Spurs, they are a young side with a good manager and he is changing the culture at White Hart Lane to a 'can do' one. One day soon they probably will win something meaningful. I just don't think they were ready to win the title this season - the last fifteen minutes of the match last night showed that more than anything. Spurs set out to have a go at Chelsea players instead of concentrating on winning the game. At least they showed a bit of spirit for once, sadly it was directed in the wrong area. To blow a 2-0 lead against a Chelsea side that aren't really playing like a Chelsea side, is not the stuff of Champions.


The last time Leicester won the Premiership

Leicester were 5000/1 to win the title. So that means they should win roughly 1 in 5000 seasons. If you imagine that Premiership football has been going on back through the ages, then 5000 seasons ago would take us back to around 3000 B.C. A long time ago. We're talking Hieroglyphic writing in Egypt, the building of the city of Troy, the constructing of Stone Henge.

In fact we know those odds are rubbish - bookmakers put them out after all. So the actual probability is probably greater. Odds of 25,000/1 might be more like it but my 'history' doesn't go back that far..

Congratulations to Leicester City.

Put The Statues On Hold...

Well it was always a big ask for Spurs to beat West Brom at home to really stay in the Premiership title race...what a bunch of plonkers. Spurs may still do it of course but only if Leicester implode spectacularly, which looks unlikely.


"The players will deserve statues...really?"

There is also the fact that Spurs have to go to Chelsea, which even with London derby status would have been a 'nothing' game for the Blues, but will probably mean something now because Chelsea can end Tottenham's hopes altogether, assuming of course that Leicester haven't wrapped it up at Man Utd.

I was at the Man City game and we played like a bunch of kids at a family picnic...not a care in the world. I don't think that will be the case next Monday. If Spurs are still in the race, then I expect Chelsea will take the game more seriously than any they have played this season...and would probably get some kind of a result.

If there was any doubt in Leicester fans minds, then there shouldn't be, because Chelsea face their team on the last day of the season. If the title is still up for grabs, then it won't be for long. Don't get me wrong, Chelsea are a professional outfit, you don't win things if you're not, but there have been lapses in professionalism this season - which is why we haven't won anything. There is 'trying' and then there is 'Trying' and I don't expect there to be much of the 'capital T' variety from Chelsea, if Leicester need a result to clinch the title from Spurs.

As for Pochettino's comments about his players deserving statues built in their honour if they win the title, how would that work? I mean at the end of the day they would have challenged for the title and beaten...Leicester City (no disrespect). Were Spurs fighting off sustained challenges from other clubs...not really. Did they overcome record points deficits...no. Sorry, but even if they win the league, the last thing that should happen is to have their players cast in stone and dotted around White Hart Lane. That honour should only go to Leicester City and only if they pull off the greatest shock in Premier League history.

It's not that I dislike Spurs, even if they are London rivals, I just hate their lack of grit. They always capitulate when the chips are down and it looks as if they have done so again.

What next then for The Foxes? Champions League glory of course!

At least they play in blue.

Can They Do It?

Zlatan...ready to destroy City?

A terrific game is in prospect on Tuesday as Man City take a great position into the 2nd leg of the Champions League. PSG might have goalkeeper Kevin Trapp back after a knee problem on Saturday, but they will be without Marco Verratti, who I think is a key player, as well as Pastore, Luiz and Matuidi, the latter two missing out due to suspension.

Kompany may be fit, Aguero and Silva should get over their 'knocks', so that only leaves City short of Raheem Sterling and he's crap anyway. City have a real chance of making their first ever Champions League semi-final.

Only that crazy dude Zlatan can upset the party!

Cheltenham 2016. Day Four...

Day Three Results:
Bristol De Mai 5/1 - 2nd
Garde La Victoire - 4/1 - Fell

Not the best day yesterday. As De Mee ran ok at the price. Cole Harden led but didn't really assert any authority on the race so the price only dropped a point in running.

Nothing strong for today. I am looking at the Albert Bartlett NH at 2.50pm. It's not an easy race so small stakes. I am going to mix up some reverse forecasts or tricasts with Shantou Village, Barters Hill and Gangster. Bet them individually or e/w or however you want. A few quid will get you a decent payout on forecasts / tricasts so just a bit of fun really.

I will just mention Up For Review for a few pennies each way at 20/1. The latter may not the strongest Mullins runner in this race - but happy enough with the price.

Shantou Village, Barters Hill, Gangster - forecasts / tricasts / win etc.

Cheltenham 2016. Day Three...

Day Two Results:
Yorkhill 3/1 - won
Vyta Du Roc 10/1 e/w - unplaced.


Yorkhill did the business turning over the short priced fav. It was a great ride by Ruby but I have to confess that for a while I thought he might get himself boxed in on the rail. Anyway, in the end it wasn't a problem in a small field. Vyta Du Roc travelled nicely but was disappointing at the end of the race - but at least we avoided the two short priced favs in that race, which both lost.

Day Three:

JLT Novices Chase. 1.30pm:

Four runners at the head of the market here. Bristol De Mai, Garde La Victoire, Outlander and Black Hercules. I will go against Mullins' Black Hercules - so far I have avoided Mullins when he's lost and backed him when he's won, so let's hope that continues! I am reluctantly scratching off Outlander too - drying ground will probably be against him.

I can't separate the final two, Bristol De Mai and Garde La Victoire. I'm not in love with either horse but I think one of them will win. If you wanted to take one e/w it would probably be Bristol De Mai.

Bristol De Mai: 5/1
Garde La Victoire: 4/1

I haven't found any big prices this Cheltenham and I never usually bet at the shorter end of the market. I just haven't fancied anything at bigger prices. In desperation I will mention As De Mee at 28/1, in the same race, for pennies each way.

For those of you that want an in running trade, you need look no further than Cole Harden in the 3.30pm who is highly likely to lead or be up with pace as usual. He was a winner for me last year at 20/1 and this is his race.

Cheltenham 2016. Day Two...

Day One Results: Atior 4/1 e/w - won.

Day Two:

Neptune Investment Management NH. 1.30pm: I am against Yarnworth at the prices and if you can get around 3/1 for Yorkhill that would be the bet.

Yorkhill: 11/4 or bigger.

RSA Chase. 2.10pm: I kind of wanted to be on Roi Des Franc (Mullins / Walsh) but I am not sure the ground will suit. More Of That probably wins this but he is short. No More Heroes could be the shorter price value against him especially if he drifts a bit more - but I am going to have a small each way bet on Vyta Du Roc.

Vyta Du Roc: 10/1 e/w.

That's it for today.

Cheltenham 2016. Day One...

Supreme Novices Hurdle. 1.30pm: I laid Min yesterday at 2/1. Too short. His price is now out 5/2 and I hope he drifts a bit more. I think he is one of the weaker Mullins' and I will probably keep the lay or just lay off the liability to £0.00 - but I won't be looking to profit on him for the win. If you are on at a bigger price though, obviously keep the bet.

Altior: 4/1 e/w - short price for an each way but my preference. Nothing else really for me at bigger prices.


Not really involved in anything else for today.

Cheltenham 2016...

At last Cheltenham is here! Best time of the year for me at work - not on the trading front - but in terms of letting my hair down...a whole year of constricting my emotions trading on racing and football is released during this week!

Just straight betting, watching the races and having fun - if I can make some money too, then great.

I've never had an unprofitable Cheltenham although last year could have been better.

I'll start posting my bets tomorrow and then each day through the festival.

Good luck!

Never Cash Out...

Yes..'Cash Out' has just got better...for the bookies!

So the 'Cash Out' trend is now well and truly entrenched in the market place and the bookmakers must be loving it! Imagine, Mr Punter goes online to place a bet. He does it with a bookmaker and so by default is already going to get pretty poor value in most cases. Then he is offered the choice of whether or not to Cash Out his bet at a certain point in a game...he decides to do that. Not only has he been ripped off on the initial bet, he goes back in and gets terrible odds on the Cash Out bet too!

Don't do it! The fact that the bookies are so hot on promoting it should tell you something.

Of course there are situations where Cashing Out might seem like a good idea - but the problem will always be the price.


That should read...'Let us take control of your football bets'

That's not to say that I haven't used Cash Out on the Exchanges :) I have. I do a fair bit of trading in the Correct Score markets in football. Trying to come out of a trade with many sets of fluctuating prices within the same market isn't easy. So I know that cash out is probably the best option. Trying to square up manually isn't practical and by the time you have worked it all out the market has moved again - so yes, I am ashamed to say I do occasionally use Cash Out on the exchanges.

The other day I didn't like the way things were going in a match and so I got out for a small profit of £22.00. The market wasn't very liquid at that point and there were a few 'gaps' on some prices - but the Exchange Cash Out button was offering me £14.00 which is getting close to 40% less profit!

So make sure that you pick your moment to Cash Out on the exchanges and don't trust the figure in the Cash Out display.

Why..?

Nothing to smile about Manuel...and we don't want you at Chelsea

So Pellegrini saw fit to send his youngsters to Stamford Bridge to play in the most prestigious domestic cup tournament in the world. What a shame. He disrespected the competition and, if you want to get sensitive, disrespected Chelsea. In the end he got what he deserved and probably gained nothing in terms of experience for his young guns who will probably just feel demoralised.

Chelsea have the best set of youngsters out there and have basically won it all in the last few years and they wouldn't dream of putting them out as a whole team.

So Pellegrini had injury and team concerns ahead of his Champions League tie against Dynamo Kiev..so what. This isn't the CL semi-final or final we're talking about..he should have played his best team on Sunday and his best team in the CL a few days later. With the form they are currently in, City have no hope of a CL final appearance anyway.

Lets hope in years to come managers, especially foreign managers, understand the importance of domestic trophies like the FA Cup and don't start fielding second string sides in that competition. We already have a competition for that and it's called the League Cup...oh and guess what, Man City are in the final of that one.

Only the Hair Matters...

Well Arsene Wenger must have been hoping that the departure of Mourinho would lead to a rare victory over Chelsea but it wasn't to be.. Chelsea too savvy again. The blues just sat on their lead in typical fashion and said "c'mon then.." and although Arsenal did have a reasonable ten minute spell and the odd half chance, they really weren't up to it.

When watching sports, it's easy to get carried away with home crowd noise and commentary. The crowd over-compensates when their team is down and will applaud anything. Add that to the commentators job, which is to make the game seem more exciting and you soon get a distorted picture of a match. It happens in sports like football and in racing too. In the latter, you can often see that the race will only have one winner, yet the commentator makes out that something is coming off the pace to take the race or come close. If you are a sports / football or a race trader and you cannot filter out the hype, then turn off the volume!

Back to the Premier League, they say that 'if you win it, then it's deserved'. It may still hold true but whoever wins it this season will be a 'weak' champion. The big teams that won it in the past - Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and going back a bit Liverpool - were teams that dominated domestically and mostly went on to compete, with some successes, in Europe. You get the feeling that whoever wins this season will be a poor team.

I feel sorry for Wenger, he's is a good, intelligent manager. He has probably made some mistakes in terms of buying the right players and stuck too long with some of his footballing theories but the players have yet to reward the man for his hard work and that won't happen until they focus.

What is wrong with this picture?



That's right, for Arsenal players, it's all about personal grooming and how they look on social media. I can tell you, categorically, that all these photos were taken either in the 90th minute of matches or after four hour training sessions. How can your hair still be perfect? None of them have even headed the ball..

And it's catching. Flamini, who doesn't even have any hair, won't head the ball either. He should have gone with his head on Sunday at the end of the first half against Chelsea, instead of practicing his Kung Fu.


Flamini misses..and in the background yet another Arsenal player doing his hair..

Success is within Wenger's reach. He just needs to adopt a 'shave it off' policy. Then maybe his team will get somewhere.


The 'ox' applauding his team mates' latest barnets.

Arsenal to win the league? Surely not...

Good Odds...

This is a situation I often end up with. Anyone who has looked at my vids will know that I am generally against the favourite in a race (often other horses too if I feel the price is too short).

In the example below, I had a small lay bet in running against Heron's Heir. In the end, however, I hedged / backed it and got out. The horse won. If you pick your races carefully and there is still time in the race, you can expect some fluctuation in price that will allow you to do this, if you feel it is necessary. The difficulty is getting out quickly and getting your maths right in what amounts to a few seconds!

Although the trade ended up as a small loss, when you look at the final risk / reward in terms of loss and profit you can see that you have ended up with excellent odds.



Graph below shows price fluctuation near the finish.

When It Works Out...

I am not a regular Back to Lay trader, every man, his dog and his dog's mate is doing it, but there are races during the week, where I can't find any other angle into the race, so I do bet on the odd horse that I think will shorten in running.

The trick is to have a good feel for whether or not the horse will front run, if it's a good jumper or traveller, then pick the right types of race. A good jockey can help too.

Of course you are always vulnerable to your horse falling, running poorly, not front running as expected, being left in the stalls - all of which will kill your trade... and then some. Of course, other horses in the field can run into difficulty or fall too. This happened yesterday, where I was on Fletchers Flyer (fav.) and the second favourite, Value at Risk, fell early in the race.

The price on Fletchers Flyer immediately collapsed and went ridiculously short - below 1.17 from memory. I managed to get out / equalise at about 1.28. Betfair SP was 2.06 or thereabouts. Fletchers Flyer still managed to lose but there was of course already profit across the board.

The Golden Guus...

Well the 'fixer' is back and he's started to work his magic already. The last time he took over in 2009 his record was exemplary and many Chelsea fans wanted him to stay. I think he'll move on again after this season - mainly because he is probably thinking more about retirement than a career change and CFC will be looking to the future...again.

Top four? Maybe, but only if inconsistency continues to plague the 'top' teams. Europa League..? Let's hope not!