One...Two...Three...Bang...

Well when things aren't going well for your football team, it's always nice to look back at one of their greatest ever goals. This is one of the best ever in the Premiership, it was goal of the season, it would certainly be shown more if Wayne Rooney had scored it...he might actually be the only person in the league today who could score it..

'Super' Mario Stanic banged this in on his debut. I am sure at the time we must have been thinking that the new messiah had arrived to walk the Stamford Bridge turf..

Pops it up (puts the kettle on) another keepy uppy (makes a cup of tea) and another (has a biscuit) and finally launches it. He also had the most symmetrical face in football...that probably sounds weird.

Stanic Goal

Financial Charts...Racing Charts...

There has been a fair bit of discussion on the subject of using financial charting / technical analysis techniques and applying them to pre race trading charts. There are obvious advantages of having a good charting suite for the exchanges.

On the exchange graphs, you will very often see prices bounce off resistance and support points during the course of the day as the markets develop, but liquidity isn't great early on. There is no doubt that you get traders who simply won't let a price fall below or rise above a certain price.

Drifting horses often continue to drift and shortening horses often continue to shorten - in certain types of races. So trends often develop.

Volume is also underestimated. It is important in financial trading and I would use it in pre race trading on horses.

Yet where you can be profitable on being a pure financial charting analyst with some basic knowledge to back you up, I am not sure the same is true in the horse racing markets - especially if you are using exchange charts which do not give you a realistic view of picture due it being 'compressed' over time. Some popular software like Bet Angel can solve this problem.

It got me thinking about general trends regarding my horse racing results. I started doing daily results charts recently for one of my systems - it is a very consistent and profitable system. It also has roughly the same high number of bets each month - many hundreds. In the monthly charts I couldn't see any real pattern. September's chart is below.



October and November (to date) results charts are similar. I then decided to do a cumulative chart for the last eleven weeks or so:



Bingo! well...maybe. There is a kind of diagonal channel that has developed. Maybe there is something in it...if you are having close to the same number of bets each month, high turnover, on the same types of horses, on the same range of prices and the same kind of monthly profit - maybe you can expect similar patterns. (Summer results will probably be different to winter).

In the future, will it be possible to judge rough entry points and back or lay my picks accordingly?

Bit of fun!

Pat Eddery...

RIP Pat Eddery. One of the greats.

(Everything has already been written about the man. Go on to You Tube for some of his great rides.)

Jose...

Jose in a brighter moment...

Well I suppose it's only fair to stick my head above the parapet, after all I am fairly quick to praise Chelsea and Mourinho when things are going well...It is now Chelsea's worse start since 1978/79, 'the good old days' and I think I watched them get relegated that year...

So what to do? If Jose had lost the dressing room, then I think he would already be gone...but not all the players look happy...so watch this space. As a fan, we need to keep him. Who else is there? Who else knows the league backwards? Who else can we trust to deliver a dynasty? I don't think a new manager would necessarily be a good thing in the longer term..

Personally I'd just like to see a couple of extra players brought in during the transfer window - just to add a bit of competition for places if nothing else...but will they want to come!

We looked a hell of a lot better at Stoke - should have had a result - but when it's not going for you...I fear the international break has come at the wrong time for once.

On Jose's behaviour..well he hasn't been a shining example. Part of it is to deflect attention from his team but not all of it...he is running on emotion just a bit. The man, however, remains a genius, so you have to expect the eccentricities. 'Winners hate to lose'. The managers who go on a losing run and take it gracefully in typical 'nice guy' British fashion, almost never turn it around and end up getting fired.

As far as the Premiership goes, CFC were the 'representatives'. Now there is no one. Lets face it the standard in the league is on the decline - we are about to lose a Champions League spot. Chelsea were really the only team able to compete on the global stage...it's a bit of a disaster all around. City might come good this year in Europe - maybe I've finally been wrong about them :) It would be good to see an English team in the CL semis at least.

Role Models...

So it would be nice if every teenage girl had a good role model. The problem is that all the 'decent' ones aren't usually on prime time TV on a Saturday night - Jessica Ennis, Serena Williams and more, tend to be on TV when kids are at school. That means that often the only option is the 'X-Factor' mob, or some of the other people on reality TV panels.

In a recent survey of teenage girls - over 80% stated that they would ideally like to 'marry a footballer'. That was more or less the extent of their aspirations. It is entirely possible that the sample was taken in areas of the country where options might be more limited. It does, however, speak volumes. Regardless, you would think that you'd have more chance of becoming an athlete than marrying your 'ideal person' - train up girls!

For my daughter, Cara Delevingne is the flavour of the month. Cara is probably a really nice girl, but does she deserve to be idolised? I am going to take some 'gentle' action.

One woman I follow is Ronda Rousey (UFC). Ok, there is a lot of debate about the morality of 'female combat' (Olympics aside) and the UFC can be a bit of a circus - but 'Roudy' Ronda is great. She's hard, trains like an animal, is tough as nails, yet still kind and sensitive. She is also a supreme athlete and, in that department at least, a great role model of kids.


Cara...Cute but you've got nothing on Ronda..


Nicole...You've got nothing on Ronda either..

Rousey has had a few 'blips' along the way - mainly in personal relationships. Who hasn't. We should cut her a break. Her father broke his back sledding with his daughters and, having learned that he would be a paraplegic, committed suicide when Rousey was only eight years old. She struggled until six years old with apraxia (unable to form intelligible sentences due to the umbilical cord being wrapped around her neck at birth). Later, she dropped out of high-school. Yet she persevered, mainly in sport, and many years later she became the first American to win an Olympic medal in judo since its introduction as an Olympic sport in 1992.

She has been drafted in to a few movies of late and also does the 'obligatory' scantily clad photo shoots that seem to accompany all athletes these days. I just hope she stays focused on her main career.


Go Ronda...That's more like it.

On November 14th (that could be the 15th Down-Under) she fights Holly Holm in Australia, in Melbourne's 70,000 seat Etihad Stadium. It should be sold out.

I will be watching with my daughter - she's an athlete in the making. I just need to get her off her ipad..

Don't miss the start - I don't expect it to last long.

Australia v New Zealand...Pick 'Em?

New Zealand should do a job on Australia at the weekend but things are rarely that simple. Cheika is an excellent coach and he possibly has the 'men of the tournament' in Hooper and Pocock - those two at least can match the All Black for intensity. Australia have had the tougher games though - and that could count against them. You also feel that the Kiwis are peaking at the right time..

It is the relentless intensity that basically makes the All Blacks who they are - virtually invincible. They are everything that England and some of the other home nations are not at present, sadly.

Why are the All Blacks so successful? They are true to their roots. If you were given the basic rules of rugby and then told to go out on to a field and play - with no coaches or refs, what would you do? You'd run like hell, pass, catch and try to dodge tackles. Sod the set pieces, the kicking and defence concerns. That's how they teach the game to kids in New Zealand. Add to that the fact that every primary school in the country has a playing field...and you begin to see how the opportunity for youngsters is there.

Growing up playing rugby is all about handling the ball (having fun). I don't believe that in New Zealand they bother with 15-a-side until they get to eleven or twelve years old. Even then, penalties aren't kicked - the ball is handed back to the other side to run with it again..

Add to the mix a few strong, fast 'islanders' and a picture of dominance begins to appear.

New Zealand is a small country with a small population and one of the only ways to measure themselves against the rest of the world is through Rugby - they don't measure up badly.

So it's simple really:

1. Have fun.
2. Run, pass, catch.
3. Have some pride.

I don't know how we teach rugby over here these days but the overriding images I have of e.g. my son - was him standing out on the wing in mid winter, hands freezing, on a full size pitch, with twenty-nine other kids and never touching the ball once - because the skill level wasn't there for the ball to travel down the line. What a joke. Not surprisingly he gave up to play football instead.

System News...

Just a bit of info on one of the systems that I run. It's a high volume (large number of bets) system that takes a fair bit of work. I'm not going to give away the details for obvious reasons and in any case the majority of people wouldn't be able to run with it because it takes a fair bit of racing knowledge in certain areas. I put this video up on You Tube to highlight a few points on expected fluctuations in betting generally, how with this system you can in theory 'model the month' based on results (not generally adviseable with most betting / systems!) and how you have to stick with your betting through the good times and the bad - as long as your research shows long term positive results!

I currently run it with £100 stakes, due to other trading activities, but you could in theory stake at least five times that with no negative effects. At ten times I imagine that you might struggle at times to get all your money taken when you need it taken - I'll let you know if ever I get to that stage!

So don't go buying some rubbish system on the web for £39.99, as there are plenty of tools out there to help you to develop your own!

Double Whammy...

Well it was a disastrous sporting weekend! First off I took my boy to the Bridge for Chelsea v Southampton - which we thoroughly deserved to lose. Prime seats, lovely day - it's just that we conspired to give the ball way at every opportunity. Clearly things are badly wrong - only Willian and Falcao appeared to have their heads in the right place - even if the latter was largely ineffective.

Sadio Mane, as his name suggests, really was a lion in this game. He was brilliant.. unfortunately for us.


Sadio Mane...pushing away 'pillars' at Stamford Bridge...like Samson at the Temple of Dagon!

Then we watched the England v Australia rugby match - which was less of a shock really. It was truly laughable that England would ever be favourites for this game. The weight of expectation sucked the price in on England (8/11) leaving Australia as outsiders (11/8). Pocock and Hooper just destroyed us and the England scrum were overwhelmed towards the end.


The whole England team might as well have played with hands on hips for the entire game...

England were never going to win this game on paper - especially after Wales. This was never going to be the Australia of old. This Australian team has just won the Rugby Championship (new Tri-Nations format) which makes them, almost by default, the best team in the world! Why anyone thought it would be anything less than a thrashing I don't know...and it was a thrashing; play the same match again down-under and you could have given the Aussies at least another ten points.

One of the big disappointments though is how England, Australia and Wales ended up in the same group! It needs looking at..some better type of seeding..group stage re-structuring. England and maybe even Fiji should still be 'in' the competition! It's never good for any tournament when the hosts don't make it through the group stage...not least because going out has cost the economy about £500,000,000!

Champions League...

Betfair have a good Champions League offer tonight:

Only new customers I suspect so I can't take advantage!:

Chelsea, Arsenal and Barcelona all to win at 18/1

Or you can take the teams individually:

Arsenal 4/1

Chelsea 8/1

Barcelona 4/1

Oh England...

So it was not to be against Wales. You could feel the tide turning in the game with plenty of time left. Pity I didn't break my golden rule about not betting in games where I have an emotional interest - would've cleaned up!

Once again, this young England side that promised much at the start of Lancaster's reign, haven't really delivered. They only ever seem to be able to play 60 minutes of rugby against decent opposition and I now fear for us against Australia.

Many are critical of the decision not to kick that last penalty but maybe the angle would have beaten Farrell - maybe not. He was kicking well.

We just looked naive in the lead up to the Welsh try and there wasn't much in the way of on-field leadership as Wales began to get on top.

Bring back Manu Tuilagi? The man is a match-winner...just the 'small' matter of the assault charge.


Lucky to ever play for England again?

It's Official...

...Same ol', same ol'...

Well it's official then - Manchester City aren't in fact playing any better in the Premiership than they were last season...it's just that everyone else is crap! It looks like the Champions League will just be another embarrassing outing for them - I mean Juventus have started worse than Chelsea :(

Galacticos...

Louis Van Gaal with his giant Filofax..

Manchester Utd. fans must be lamenting the departure of Sir Alex Fergusson and David Gill more than ever.. the 'model' that brought them so much success in years gone by, seems to have been replaced with a 'buy first, work it out later' approach. It's almost as if they have adopted the Galacticos handbook to buying players, yet worryingly without the guarantee that the players are even world class...

Close to £250m has been spent since Van Gaal took over at the start of 2014 and with that sort of spend, many owners would be expecting success this season. Amazingly Van Gaal, presumably with the board's backing, has stated that the team are still very much a 'work in progress' and that he would like to win the title before his contract is up in 2017; that gives him another two seasons including this one. It's just as well because it looks as if the team have a long way to go...

Some of LVG's thinking might be questionable. He has been quoted as saying:

"I have not bought Martial for me, I have bought him for the next manager of Manchester United"

Er, well that's very good of you Louis, but why? You could always have spent the £36m (possibly rising to £58m) on a brilliant proven talent, to help you during your tenure. Maybe it was the Glazer's idea.

I like Van Gaal as a manager, he's a great character, another one of those 'mad genius' types like Mourinho. They are friends. He is one of those managers that you don't fire easily, but I wonder if United will have to do just that if they want to win anything meaningful before 2017.

First Day Back...

So, first day back. Not a great day but not a disaster either. Forget about the results, what I am trying to highlight here is the importance of discipline. It might help some of you. I know when I first started betting / trading, many years ago, I occasionally 'chased my bets' and it is ill-advised!

I run through my end of day results in this video:




Thanks.

Blue's Blues...

Firstly I am well aware that I have not posted for a while. Unfortunately I am not one of those prolific - 'blog from anywhere' - type of bloggers. I am in the middle of a six week holiday which I intend to enjoy, although I have to say that it is quite shameful taking it in the middle of summer with all the horse racing that is on!

I felt I had to post though after Chelsea's terrible start to the season... I say 'start to the season' but perhaps that should be 'end of preseason' - they just don't look as if their season has even begun!

More worrying is the fact that my beloved Jose doesn't see, or pretends not to see, that we were woefully under-prepared for the first two matches; slow to the ball, losing the ball too easily, poor passing and just generally not the cohesive unit that we were last season.


Away grounds can be lonely places...

Dressing room bust up? Eva? Chelsea have had 'player power' incidents in the past with Andre Villas-Boas and Mourinho has also made 'statements' in the past by making odd decisions and substitutions.

The rest of the league will be loving it. That's ok. Let's just batten down the hatches put a win on the board and start grinding out those results. Maybe by the end of the season we can wipe a few smiles off a few faces...Come on Chels!

Losing Runs...

When I was young...once...a handicapper in the US talked to me about losing runs. He told me that the problem with any betting is that once you start you cannot stop. He wasn't talking about 'addiction' or 'problem gambling', he was telling me that you shouldn't stop because you never truly know if you are in a bad run, a good run, a run that is just starting, or a run that is just ending. You just have to keep going. He was right. The quickest way to eat up your bank is to stop because you think your efforts might not be working - then maybe switching to something else and possibly suffering the same fate.

Imagine this. Stored in the building are 10,000 balls. There are 6000 white balls and 4000 black balls. The white balls represent the winners, the black balls represent the losers. Both coloured balls have equal value. One day the building explodes and balls are strewn everywhere and your task is to pick them up. It's conceivable that you might come across 5, 10, even 15 black balls first. Yet out there in the carnage are 6000 white balls waiting to be picked up - you just haven't found them yet.

If you started betting and 'picked up' 5, 10, even 15 losers, you might be inclined to throw in the towel there and then. Yet out there in 'betting land' the winners are just waiting to be found.

Pick up all 10,000 balls or bets and you are ahead of the game.



Losing runs are nothing unusual - you just have to know what to expect and that is where many punters fail. In the past, I have suffered 11 losses in a row at around even money. That shouldn't be a surprise - odds of just over 2000/1 of that occurring. If you are betting enough volume, every so often you will hit batches of consecutive losses, just as you will have blocks of winners. Of course 'in a row', 'consecutive losses' or 'losing run' terms can be misleading. The damage can be far worse than your likely worst 'consecutive loss'. In the above example I think I went 11 losses (consecutively) 2 winners, then another 5 consecutive losses, before recovery. So it's the overall 'streak' that's important. Losing 11 in a row at 1/1 or 2.0 (50%) is just about statistically bang on - in terms of likely consecutive losses at those odds and you could hit them during the first week that you start betting.

The same handicapper told me that there had been a colleague of his, another pro, who bet the handicap in basketball. You are generally betting at odds of 1.91 just as you do in the NFL - we have the market in the UK too. Anyway, he allegedly hit around 30 losers in a row! 30 losers at odds on! I'm not going to work out the odds - my calculator probably won't have enough space - but it will be tens or even hundreds of millions to one. I think the guy was asked to go on national radio in the US to tell his story!

With the volume I bet, I have been very lucky not to hit higher numbers in my losing streaks (partly because I occasionally dutch a few in some systems) but 'the big one' will probably come one day - you just have to treat it as a symptom of your betting. Prepare for it and ride it out.

So if you are confident that you are finding value on a consistent basis, then don't let the bad runs put you off your stride. One thing I have learned, however, is that a losing run usually goes on longer than you think - so keep your discipline.

Good luck!

Cricket...

Sorry people - been a while. Just getting on with summer, kids, Ashes and juggling the betting in between. England were widely written off for this Ashes series but most pundits thought that they would at least win one Test match...they will probably win the first unless Australia can bat it out from 145/6. Maybe England can take something from the first Test and compete in the series..

Ascot...

I tend not to get heavily involved over Ascot. I have had a couple of favs go in as well as Trip To Paris yesterday at 19/1 in the Gold Cup - but otherwise I prefer just to have the TV on in the background. The problem is that there are too many other distractions!

Well, just as Gunnery Sergeant Thomas Highway - in the movie Heartbreak Ridge - likes to take a peak at Cosmopolitan magazine - I don't mind admitting that I quite like looking at the ladies' hats..


Teddy Bear's picnic


Sore neck?


Cute


Bird of Paradise


Model



Polish anti-racing protestors - note lash marks - quite clever

Trading System Update...

I thought I should update where I am on the Trading System that I was working on.

It started out as a very selective system - and although I don't have an 'itchy trigger finger' - going days in a row without a trade might have proven problematic over the long term.

When I last updated at the end of March we had around 8 points of profit. I spent most of April tweaking things and trying to work out how to get more trades into the market. As a result, at the beginning of May, we hadn't moved much and were still around the 8 point mark but I'd only had a few trades due to this process.

Approaching the middle of May I kicked on again in earnest with some good results. As the months and years go by I will check all my results against distance, course, price, conditions, weight and other useful criteria and perhaps eliminate certain trades that look unprofitable. It's a very long process but there is really no shortcut. This is not a system that can be back-tested. It is something very unique.

The results shown are for a three week period (ten day break over half term)
from 11 May - 10 June. Profit = 48.25 points. It might be wise to expect some kind of draw-down quite shortly...who knows.

Post Note: Apologies, the results sheet below does not lend itself well to the post / blogger. It's probably too large. From now on I will probably just have to post totals only.

Fantasy Justifier...

Great fun was had with Fantasy Justifier the other day - by some people anyway - just goes to show that most punters haven't got a clue if a horse is going to win or not!

Eventually the horse did win.

Exchange Training...

I recently came across Peter Webb's course again. I went on his 'Trading Master Class' course (or equivalent) around ten years ago now. Judging by the list of topics and the audio clip on the site, it sounds as if he has improved on the course substantially - and it was already excellent when I went all those years ago.

Anyone who is starting out / thinking of trading on the betting exchanges could really benefit from Peter's course. Ultimately success will depend on your mindset and discipline but you can take a giant step forward by attending.

I think the course still focuses primarily on the pre-race markets.

Just a heads up really.

Great Start to the Week...

Well it's been a great start to the week. Today, the recently 'pumped up' Hadron Collider starts to deliver data and yesterday Sepp Blatter resigned as FIFA president.

There was better opposition to his appointment this time around but presumably it was the continued allegations of corruption, culminating in the FBI's investigation, that finally told. One thing is for sure, he didn't do it out of honour - he would have been left with no option.

You have to wonder who was voting for him in the first place...Probably those trying to preserve their 'Christmas bonuses'. Anyway this has been about sixteen years overdue.

Blatter said: "Fifa needs profound restructuring." (er...hello?) He also stated that 'he would continue in his current post until an extraordinary congress is called to elect a new president'. No dates have been set, but any 'election' is expected to take place between December 2015 and March 2016.. By that stage he'll probably have forgotten that he ever resigned.


That's right Sepp, off you go - for the game, for the world...and don't forget your water.

Let's get the accountants in and find out where all the money has gone. After the investigations by the Americans and the Swiss have been concluded, I'd be very surprised if we don't have a good degree of evidence to show that Russia and / or Qatar 'bought' their World Cups.

On a more cheerful note, the Hadron Collider resumes it's search for Dark Matter, now with actual data popping out of the machine. Physicists probably won't actually see the Dark Matter - just its impact on other protons. This will just tell them that 'something' is there - but they may never know 'what' exactly.

So why is this beautiful machine buried 100m below Cern, Switzerland. Ok you need space, security, peace and quiet...but you also have to be careful when you are playing with things that you don't fully understand. In theory machines like this can cause damage - although it is unlikely that 100m will make any difference if things 'kick off'.


Careful mate, the stuff in that thing collides with the energy of 13 trillion electron volts..

We have to acknowledge that Einstein's best work might now only explain 5% of the laws of the universe - so there is a lot of 'unexplained stuff' out there. Hadron might get us closer if it doesn't trigger some catastrophic event - what chance of a black hole being created that destroys the planet? One in a billion...probably.

On the positive side Blatter is Swiss and could possibly be one of the first to go.

Big Prices In Running...

Collected a few big priced winners on the graphs a few weeks ago - Tom Dooley being the best of them going out to 1000.0 before going on to win. Around £20.00 was matched at maximum odds.



There was a spate of big priced winners in play around that time - thereafter we had a 400.00, 150.00 and a few more.

I have studied, to a degree, these extreme prices in play (1.01, 1000.0 and so on) but I could only break down the data for a few levels - although some punters may have found an edge or think that they have, I have concluded that it is probably fairly insignificant. I am sure that you could have a good year or two before breaking even and then losing in following years.

The Irish courses have had good years for extreme priced winners / losers in play and of course there are good courses in England too. Yet trying to find trends that stood up over time was hard and I think a horse race is just too Chaotic to try and predict where / when these big priced horses will win.

Ken...

Well in the end not even 'Ken' could save Real Madrid. I'd been waiting for this moment throughout the Champions League. I felt that Real would get knocked out but I have to admit that I did not expect Juventus to be the team to do it! It really does prove that football is a team game - with Juventus totally outclassed on paper.


Ronaldo's hair turns white overnight after defeat to Juventus...



Pull the string in the side of my head: "I am the best footballer in the world..."

It wasn't Cristiano's day but I think they'll be plenty more awards to come in the future.



Ok, so I've had a bit of fun here, but at the end of the day Ronaldo deserves everything he gets - he's come through a tough childhood, worked supremely hard and basically moulded (excuse the pun) himself into the best football player on the planet. I think he's just about earned the right to gel his hair before each game..

System Set Up...

Current system set up is simple enough with Gruss. The only downside is that you can't switch between 'Profiles' on the go - you have to logout and login again which is a big downside. I often use other software in parallel, like Geeks Toy, which offers more flexibility on Profiles. Of course you have to watch your data charges. Still, I love Gruss for its basic simplicity and useful In Play options.

Man Of Steel...

Thank you AP!



1. AP spends between two and two-and-a-half hours in a sauna six days a week to ensure he is the correct weight for riding. That equates to almost two years of his life.

2. He loses between 2-4lb per session. In his 25-year amateur and professional career, he has lost the equivalent weight of two African elephants – the heaviest animal on Earth.

3. McCoy has chipped 14 teeth and broken 13 bones in his quest to be the best.



4. Whilst most involved in horse racing have a history with the sport, McCoy did not begin to work around horses until he was 13 – turning full-time at 15 when he left school.

5. After time off following a broken leg, McCoy’s weight increased and resulted in him switching from flat racing to jumps racing.

6. McCoy has been Champion Jockey for 1,040 weeks whilst Roger Federer’s two spells at world No 1 equate to 302 weeks. Tiger Woods has spent 545 weeks as golf’s world No 1.



7. McCoy says he has fallen off a horse more than 1,000 times, which is equivalent to falling from the world’s largest building, the Burj Khalifa, twice.


8. After the running of the 2010 Grand National, which AP won aboard Don’t Push It, bookmakers reported a loss of around £50million.

9. AP’s breakfast consists of a cup of tea with two sugars and maybe a piece of toast, if he isn’t watching his weight too carefully for a ride later in the day.

10. In another move to control his weight, AP only eats four dinners per week.

How AP Compares:

Weirdo or Wally...

Just waiting for the Flat to kick in a bit more. Hate this time of year - May will be better. I'll have some system updates and hopefully a few more videos soon. Just quiet for me right now..

Only a couple of weeks to go until the General Election and after all the campaigns are run, the debates are done, the questions have been asked, it's going to boil down to one thing:

Do you want to vote for a weirdo who can't eat a bacon sandwich properly or a wally who uses a knife and fork to eat a hot dog?

Decisions decisions..

Small Team...

Well I knew this day would come. I could never forgive Pellegrini for his 'Small Team' jibe against Chelsea last year and, as if that wasn't enough, insulting other teams in the league like Stoke along the way. Some of Mourinho's comments might seem 'other worldly' at times but you could never accuse him of insulting other teams or players. On the contrary, he generally heaps praise on other teams and players if they do well against him - take Bradford for instance.

'MANUEL Pellegrini described title rivals Chelsea as a "small team", comparing their playing style with Stoke City during a bad-tempered end to their 1-1 draw that had Jose Mourinho accusing Pellegrini of double standards'.


Pellegrini: "You are playing like a small team Jose"
Mourinho: "Do I look bothered? Let's see who's 'small' at the end of the season."

Pellegrini was obviously frustrated by the Etihad result not to mention the mauling they got the previous season when Chelsea won there. Then of course there is the fact that Mourinho took Pellegrini's job at Real Madrid...but you have to be 'bigger' than that as a manager.

The point is not every team has a squad like Man City. A squad that in my view is more powerful, has more depth of quality players and has more experience than any team in the league. They can afford to attack every team they come across - or so you would think.

Yet tactically and mentally they appear to have gone to pieces. They are a shadow of their former selves. They really have a become a 'small team' in the true sense of the word. Players should stand up but Pellegrini must shoulder most of the blame.

Maybe next time he'll choose his words more carefully and not be blinded by personal rivalry.

Moving on, it will be an interesting few weeks in the Premiership. I can see Manchester Utd. , Arsenal and maybe even Liverpool getting a result against Chelsea - who are far from their best. The thing is with Chelsea is that Mourinho probably isn't even thinking about beating those teams. He'll just want a draw against each of them to stop them closing the gap. That will probably be enough to win him the title.

Lewis Ferguson on Merrion Square...

I saw this live earlier this week and practically fell off my chair! Youngster, Lewis Ferguson (jockey) comes off Merrion Square at Wincanton. Really bizarre - as he falls into the fence which catapults him through the air. Even more amazing was that he got up and walked away...thankfully he didn't land on his head!

You Tube:

US Senate Hearing 2005...

It is of course dangerous to enter into the realm of politics on a blog! This is not intended to be a political post. I am not going to give my political views nor from the content of this post should anyone assume that I have any.

I watched Galloway's performance in the US Senate hearing ('oil for food') in 2005. Ten years on I have watched it again. I put this up, not to make any political statement, but because I saw it then and see it now as pure entertainment!

It was just good to see a man stand up for himself. I have seen too many 'cower' before the 'panel'!

As the old saying goes: "Be careful what you wish for." Or perhaps that should be: "Be careful who you invite to a Senate hearing."

A subsequent investigation cleared Galloway of any wrongdoing over the matter.



US Senate Hearing 2005

Trading System...

To prove a stats based betting system I would normally want 2000 bets and a good volume of action (otherwise you'd be testing for years!). It's 'upsetting' to see people using or buying a system after only a hundred bets or so - just because they have seen good profits during that period. Standard deviation will generally make fools of them and the system.

I have been working on a small side project - a 'trading system' - very selective but it is interesting and I think that even with only two and a half weeks of trading it will be profitable. I will have to take it through the summer but I don't see how the results could fundamentally change.

So how can I be more sure of my trading system after less than a 100 trades than a stats based betting system after 1000 bets? Simply because my system relies on my 'actions' - trading 'in' and then 'out' of a position. As a trader you are in control and acting on what you are seeing on the screen. On a 'bet and forget' system you have no control, although there are other benefits of course, such as taking the 'emotion' out of the equation or saving a lot of time because often you can place your bets in advance of a race - at BSP for example.

The first few results are below.

Trade No.53 was an error, one that I am unlikely to repeat - but it has to go into the P/L, after all an errant click of the mouse can happen and next time it could go in my favour.

The profit figures are to 1 pt. or £1.00 trades if you like. I prefer to use 'minimum units' to show P&L as it strips away all the nonsense. ("We made 10,000 points of profit...to £10,000 stakes!").

The strike rate is high and there is no reason for the individual losing trades to be any bigger than the individual winning trades - except perhaps for two or three times a month when you might suffer a loss of your whole 1 pt. / trading stake. Also, you are not reliant on getting in at the best possible price, this isn't about scalping or trying to steal a few ticks, it's about large / solid movement.

So far it has yielded 8.25 points of profit. The great thing is that at this stage of the market there is reasonable liquidity and so trading stakes can be in the hundreds and probably thousands.

As there are so few trades, maybe I will use it for my retirement one day! Succeed or fail, I will try and remember to report back in a few months on how it's going.

It would be great if it works. No in-depth knowledge of horse racing is required. I found this by investing a little time - nothing more. If I came up with this - then most people reading this blog could too.

English Clubs. Champions League...

A bit late on the Chelsea 'de-brief' but Cheltenham got in the way. The only thing more mysterious than Dark Matter was Chelsea's inexplicable performance against PSG. I understand the point about 0-0, 1-0, and 2-1 score-lines (all of which we had at some stage during the match) being enough to get us through, but if you are going to have a defensive strategy, then you need to be more confident in its execution! If you are not, then you need to put the game to bed with goals - especially if the opposition are down to ten men. PSG were brilliant, granted, but there were periods of the match where we should have dealt better with the situation.


Luiz scored a fantastic headed goal. Well...it just had to be...

The 'defence mentality' is logical of course, as long as you have a good defence, which Chelsea do. 'Defence' always wins out against 'Attack' over the long term, be it in football, NFL and I assume most other relevant sports like rugby and hockey.

The pundits have been banging on about English clubs failing in the Champions League after Chelsea's exit, but I am not sure that there is an inherent problem. Man City have been 'mis-managed' in their campaign (they could still beat Barcelona!). Liverpool are building, Man Utd, not in Europe, but in transition. Arsenal are clinging on but you never know! English clubs will be back. I don't think Chelsea had anyone to fear in the competition and have proved themselves against the likes of Barcelona and Bayern Munich. Ultimately, they had one poor match, which is usually costly at this level.

Chelsea's Champions League/European Record - Last 10 Years

2004 - Champions League Semi-Final
2005 - Champions League Semi-Final
2006 - Champions League 2nd Round
2007 - Champions League Semi-Final
2008 - Champions League Final
2009 - Champions League Semi-Final
2010 - Champions League 2nd Round
2011 - Champions League Quarter-Final
2012 - Champions League Winners
2013 - Champions League 1st Round/Europa League Winners
2014 - Champions League Semi-Final

The one issue for English clubs, especially towards the latter stages of the Champions League and towards the end of the Premier League season - is fatigue. In the Premier League, virtually every game is a 'battle', your toughest game could come against Liverpool or Sunderland, you never know and it does take its toll.

Contrast this to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga for instance, who in the current season to date have won around ten of their domestic matches by scoring four or more goals. The top teams in the European Leagues often have a much easier time of it.

Personally, I always wanted Chelsea to concentrate on the Premier League this season. It's about time we won it. Europe can wait...

Dark Matter...

The Hadron Collider is back online after an upgrade and hopefully scientists will soon discover more about one of the great mysteries of the universe...'Dark Matter' or as it used to be known, 'Missing Matter'.



Our disc-shaped galaxies are moving too quickly - thousands of kilometers per second - and in theory these systems should have been dispersed or flung out to the edge of space. So how do they stay intact? The theory is 'dark matter' which is essentially extra mass and gravity that allows the systems to stay bound together. The problem is that we can't see dark matter through the telescope - it's 'dark'.

Many theories have been put forward. Could dark matter just be 'ordinary matter' that isn't luminous; brown dwarfs, planets, gas clouds..? But ordinary matter in the 'necessary quantities' should give off some light or radiation that would be detectable. Could it be that in distant space a different set of physical laws apply?

Dark Matter is only 'theoretical evidence' as to why galaxies remain intact, without light, however, the existence of this 'invisible' matter is very hard to prove but it is thought to be central to everything in the universe. All we can do is look at the effect that dark matter has on its 'environment' and go from there. After all, we cannot see gravity, we are just aware of what it does.

The big problem is that Physicists can come up with the existence of all kinds of particles - Neutrinos for instance (the existence of which has been largely proven) WIMPS (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) and MACHOS (Massive Astro-Physical Compact Halo Object) the latter two being touted as probable dark matter candidates, yet in the end it will be harder to show that this is actually the 'stuff' of dark matter, due to the fact that it rests in galaxies thousands of light years away.

If the Hadron Collider can prove the existence of dark matter, it would be one of the greatest scientific discoveries of our time. Physicists appear surprisingly bullish. I'm not holding my breath!

Cheltenham Results Day Four...

Day Four Results
Ok today. Largely saved by the Coneygree 9/1 ('saver'). The 2.40pm just fell apart for me - but two of the selections virtually halved in price before the off, so I had good value. I would have really expected one or two more good priced winners over the festival but if you bet the bigger prices you tend to 'live and die' by one or two horses! I tend to avoid the shorter priced runners (generally very poor value at big meetings) having said that I got five out of six favourites that I staked (one faller). I do bet them in accumulators / savers - only to try and cover stakes on the main selections.

I made good profit again this year - even if it wasn't spectacular. Of course I am a trader not a bettor - except at the big meetings! Normally betting each-way is not the way to go. Win bets are more profitable over the long term, although results volatility will be greater. For me, the big meetings are about having an 'interest' in the race and so each way betting is the best option for that. I had a lot of fun and I hope you did too! Day Four post.

1.30pm
Hargam 15/2 - 3rd
Devilment 22/1 (e/w) - 4th (Four places on offer with a few bookies).
Petite Parisienne 11/1 - 5th

2.40pm
Definitely Red 25/1 (e/w) - PU
Tea For Two 28/1 (e/w) - PU
Carracci Apache 22/1 (e/w) - PU
Blaklion 14/1 (e/w) - PU


3.20pm
Many Clouds 8/1 - 6th
Holywell 14/1 (e/w) - 4th
Bobs Worth 20/1 (e/w) - PU

'Saver' on Coneygree 9/1 - 1st

Of the other mentions for the last three races - where I didn't bet - the highlights were:

Paint the Clouds 5/1 - 3rd
Chosen Milan 40/1 (e/w) - 5th (into 16/1 SP)
Shelford 22/1 (e/w) - 5th

So a bit of excitement.

Until next year!

Cheltenham Bets Day Four...

Day Four Friday
Well lets hope we don't throw away the profit today!

1.30pm
Hargam 15/2
Devilment 22/1 (e/w)
Petite Parisienne 11/1 (e/w ok if you can get 4 places)

Petite Parisienne would probably be my weakest of the three.

2.05pm
I won't be getting heavily involved. I may take two for a few quid:

Ebony Express 18/1 (e/w)
Hawk High 25/1 (e/w)

Just hoping for a good run really!

2.40pm
Definitely Red 25/1 (e/w)
Tea For Two 28/1 (e/w)
Carracci Apache 22/1 (e/w)
Blaklion 14/1 (e/w)

I may take all four. Not sure yet. You could just place win bets with four.

3.20pm
Many Clouds 8/1
Holywell 14/1 (e/w)
Bobs Worth 20/1 (e/w)

I will have a few quid (e/w) on Lord Windemere 22/1 and Houblon Des Obeaux 50/1.

I will have a saver on Coneygree 9/1.

4.00pm
Not betting here but I would have: Paint the Clouds 5/1, Salsify 11/1 and Chosen Milan 40/1.


4.40pm
Not betting here. Sticking a pin: Shelford 22/1 or Balgarry 25/1


5.15pm
Not betting here but I would have: Grumeti 16/1 and Ted Veale 14/1. Of the bigger prices maybe Brick Red 28/1.

I might still have a better go at sorting out the final races. So may post again.

Good luck.

Cheltenham Results Day Three...

Day Three Results
Better today. Quite a few of the picks ran very well. Day Three post.

1.30pm
Ptit Zig 11/2 - 5th
Irish Saint 16/1 (e/w) - 4th

2.40pm
Eduard 20/1 (e/w) - 4th
Wishfull Thinking 33/1 (e/w) - PU
Taquin Du Seuil 12/1 (e/w) - 9th

Uxizandre for a few quid 16/1 (e/w) - 1st

3.20pm
Cole Harden 20/1 (e/w) - 1st
Whisper 9/1 (e/w ok if you can get 4 places) - 5th
Lieutenant Colonel 9/1 (e/w ok if you can get 4 places) - 10th

Tiger Roll for a few quid 66/1 (e/w) - 13th

4.00pm
Buywise 10/1 (e/w) - 4th
Burn and Turn 20/1 (e/w) - 18th
Rajdhani Express 11/1 (e/w) - 8th


4.40pm
Not a serious race for me in terms of stakes. None of the four were placed.

Benbane Head 25/1 (e/w)
Grandad's Horse 33/1 (e/w)
Benbens 20/1 (e/w)
Guess Again 28/1 (e/w)